Why US Intelligence Agencies Misjudged in the Ukraine and Afghan Wars

Unable to Gauge Fighting Spirit Leads to Prediction Errors... "Human Relationships Still Matter"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] "Afghanistan would have lasted at least six months despite the U.S. troop withdrawal."

→ The Taliban captured Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, just four months after the U.S. troop withdrawal.

"If Russia invades Ukraine, it would secure the capital Kyiv (Kiyev) within two days."

→ More than a month into the invasion, Ukraine is defending Kyiv and fiercely resisting the Russian forces.

This refers to cases where U.S. intelligence agencies' recent battle forecasts were incorrect. On the 24th (local time), The New York Times (NYT) analyzed that the reason for the wrong predictions regarding the wars in Afghanistan and Ukraine was the difficulty in assessing the 'will to fight.'

While many factors such as leadership, supply logistics, and enemy strength serve as measures to evaluate how well a country or military fights, it is not easy to judge how strongly they intend to resist and fight. In fact, since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian citizens have been resisting strongly and engaging in combat. Civilians are directly involved, digging trenches, making Molotov cocktails, and setting up anti-tank obstacles, showing a strong will to protect their hometown and country.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

NYT emphasized, "The wars in Afghanistan and Ukraine demonstrate that even in this era of advanced data collection, human relationships remain crucial in assessing national or military morale." Former intelligence officials said that for this reason, it is very important for the perspectives of those who have worked directly with partner militaries to reach Washington policymakers.

If Afghanistan had been assessed more realistically, Afghans who helped the U.S. could have been evacuated sooner, billions of dollars could have been used elsewhere, and if the strength and efficiency of Ukraine's resistance had been known, more weapons could have been supplied earlier.

Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine experts predicted that the Ukrainian government and people would strongly resist the Russian invasion, but U.S. intelligence agencies reportedly doubted Ukraine's will to fight.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Scott Berrier, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency under the U.S. Department of Defense, said in response to a query from Republican Senator Tom Cotton earlier this month, "Before the invasion, we thought Ukrainians were poorly prepared for the attack and questioned their will to fight," adding, "In reality, they are fighting very bravely and honorably, so I believe my assessment was wrong." Senator Cotton pointed out, "The will to fight is separate from simply gathering information. It is not just about how many fighter jets there are; it is quite subjective."

Misanalysis of Ukraine's leadership also contributed to the U.S. intelligence agencies' incorrect prediction of the Ukraine invasion. Angus King, a member of the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee, said, "When the war started, President Zelensky became Churchill."

NYT reported, "It is unclear whether the U.S. is prepared to better handle assessments like will to fight in the future," adding, "It is already facing similar challenges in deterring a Chinese attack on Taiwan."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.