Has the COVID-19 Peak Passed? Domestic Researchers Predict a Decrease in New Cases

Citizens waiting to get tested at the temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul Station Plaza. Photo by Asia Economy

[Asia Economy Reporter Na Ye-eun] If social distancing and other quarantine policies are maintained at the current level, it is predicted that the domestic COVID-19 outbreak may show a gradual decline going forward.

According to the "COVID-19 Outbreak Forecast Analyzed by Mathematical Modeling" released by the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences on the 24th, multiple domestic research teams predicted in a report on the 23rd that the number of confirmed cases will decrease in the future.

The team led by Professor Lee Chang-hyung of the Department of Mathematical Sciences at Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST) estimated that reflecting the effect of social distancing policies over the past week, the number of new confirmed cases could be 373,741 on the 30th of this month and 352,321 on the 6th of next month, one week later.

Researcher Choi Seon-hwa of the Industrial Mathematics Innovation Team at the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences predicted fewer new confirmed cases. He forecasted that the number of locally transmitted confirmed cases excluding overseas inflow could be about 293,754 on the 6th of next month, approximately two weeks later, and about 186,437 on the 20th of next month, about a month later.

Kwon Oh-gyu, head of the Public Data Analysis Research Team at the same institute, also stated through analysis of resident mobility that "a decrease in daily new confirmed cases is expected in almost all regions."

The team led by Professor Jung Eun-ok of the Department of Mathematics at Konkuk University also predicted a slight decline starting from one week later. The number of critically ill patients is expected to increase to 1,281 two weeks later and 1,290 three weeks later.

In addition, the team led by Professor Hwang Hyung-joo of the Department of Mathematics at POSTECH explained that the number of confirmed cases showed a slight decreasing trend from the 19th to the 22nd and said, "It is necessary to observe further whether this is a temporary phenomenon or a continuing trend."

The quarantine authorities also stated that it is still too early to determine whether the outbreak has peaked.

Son Young-rae, head of the Social Strategy Division at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, said at a back briefing on the 24th, "By analyzing this week's situation further, we will be able to see whether the number of confirmed cases continues to decrease."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.