Despite Continuous Misses in Omicron Predictions... "Has the Government Abandoned Quarantine Measures?"

Misjudging COVID Peak Again
Despite Sharp Rise in Severe Cases and Deaths
Social Distancing Eased
Time Lag Between Cases and Deaths
Concerns Over Aftershock in 2-3 Weeks

As the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases increases, on the 17th, medical staff at Seoul Metropolitan Seobuk Hospital in Eunpyeong-gu, Seoul, are preparing to transfer COVID-19 patients while providing care. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

As COVID-19 cases surge daily, the number of critically ill patients and deaths has also sharply increased, far exceeding government projections. Despite this situation, the government’s decision to further ease social distancing measures has led to sighs of "the government has given up on quarantine" from the medical field. Citizens flocking to local clinics and hospitals for rapid antigen tests instead of public health centers are causing even the treatment of general patients to be pushed aside.

Government Predictions Continue to Miss the Mark

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, as of midnight on the 18th, the death toll was 301, marking the second highest number following the previous day’s record high of 429. In just one week from the 12th, 1,907 people died from COVID-19. This is more than seven times the 271 deaths recorded during the same period a month ago (February 12?18).

Concerns that deaths among the elderly, whose immunity weakens as cases rise, would increase have already become a reality. Of the 429 deaths announced the previous day, 148 (34.5%) were identified as resulting from cluster infections in nursing hospitals or nursing homes.

The number of critically ill patients also reached 1,049 on this day, maintaining a level above 1,000 for the 11th consecutive day since the 8th. The occupancy rate of critical care beds stands at 66.5%, meaning two-thirds of available beds are already occupied. Experts agree that deaths and critically ill patient numbers typically lag behind confirmed cases by 2 to 3 weeks, indicating that the real crisis is just beginning. If the current figures reflect deaths and critical cases from 200,000 confirmed cases two weeks ago, then in two weeks, preparations must be made for deaths and critical cases corresponding to 500,000 to 600,000 confirmed cases.

Professor Lee Jae-gap of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Hallym University Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital expressed concern, saying, "Hospitals, nursing hospitals, and care facilities must be strictly protected until the very end in the Omicron era," and added, "Even if the outbreak subsides soon, medical institutions will have to endure the aftermath for about a month."

With daily new cases surpassing 620,000, health authorities have acknowledged the spread is exceeding initial predictions and revised their estimates, suggesting the peak may be delayed beyond earlier expectations. Lee Sang-won, head of the Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis Division at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, stated, "It is true that we are approaching the peak, but the spread is higher than expected, so the peak period may be prolonged," and added, "We will re-establish prediction models reflecting the latest quarantine policies and changes in diagnostic systems."

"Effectively Giving Up on Quarantine"

In the medical field, the government’s announcement of easing social distancing measures on this day sparked outrage, with many saying, "They have confirmed that easing distancing leads to a surge in cases but are just going to sit back and do nothing." Now, not only large hospitals but even local clinics and hospitals, which have taken on some public health center duties, are struggling to provide proper care for general patients.

An internal medicine doctor in Jung-gu, Seoul, said, "Since the 14th, the number of people coming for rapid antigen tests has increased by about 50%, so general medical care is naturally delayed," adding, "Some patients come for treatment but end up leaving without being seen." A physician operating a designated respiratory treatment medical institution commented, "I think the government is underestimating Omicron," and criticized, "Many deaths are occurring in nursing hospitals, and there is no way to prevent deaths among the frail and elderly, yet they continue to ease restrictions, which doesn’t make sense."

Professor Kim Woo-joo of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital said, "The current government seems to think that if they just endure the crisis for 1 to 2 weeks, it will be fine," and added, "Right now, citizens are unable to receive proper treatment even when sick, and on the ground, medical staff and hospital workers are caught in a vicious cycle of burning themselves out."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.