Chaos from Ukraine, China Amplifies Taiwan Threat... US Warns of Military Intervention

<Prolonged Ukraine Crisis - Part 2> War Risks Shifting to Asia
Higher Possibility of US Military Intervention Unlike in Ukraine
Massive Chinese Economy Against Russia...Concerns Over Sanctions Impact
Japan's NATO-Style Nuclear Sharing Debate...South Korea and Australia May Also Join

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan are escalating further. The U.S. is strongly wary of the possibility that the Chinese leadership might take advantage of the Ukraine crisis to launch a risky invasion of Taiwan. China, on the other hand, is pushing back, accusing the U.S. and the West of trying to support Taiwan's separatist independence by exploiting Taiwan's heightened vigilance.

Experts predict that unlike Ukraine, the conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan has a higher likelihood of U.S. military intervention, which could significantly impact the security landscape of all U.S. allies in Asia, including South Korea and Japan. In particular, Japan, which has ongoing maritime territorial disputes with Russia and China, is seeing nuclear armament emerge as a major political debate to strengthen its defense. There are growing concerns that the arms race in the Asia region will intensify further.

◇The Risk of War Spreading to Taiwan

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Western countries including the U.S. have been highly alert to the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. In fact, on the 13th (local time), Wendy Sherman, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, said in an interview with Fox News, "I hope China is watching carefully what is happening to Russia," and emphasized, "I believe China will not forcibly occupy Taiwan, but we will do everything possible to deter any attempt by China to seize Taiwan by force."

The Chinese government has strongly opposed this, claiming that the U.S. is actively supporting Taiwan's arms procurement under the pretext of the military tensions triggered by the Ukraine crisis. On the 14th, Zhao Lijian, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a press briefing, "China firmly rejects the recent arms procurement contracts signed by the Taiwan region with the U.S.," and harshly criticized, "The U.S. actions constitute serious interference in China's internal affairs and violate the 'One China' principle pledged by the U.S."

The Chinese government has consistently emphasized that cross-strait relations are an internal Chinese matter, unlike the state-to-state issue between Russia and Ukraine, and asserts its territorial claim over Taiwan. Earlier, on the 7th, Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister, stressed, "The Taiwan issue is an internal matter of China, while the Ukraine issue is a dispute between the two countries of Russia and Ukraine," highlighting the difference between the Taiwan and Ukraine issues.

◇"Taiwan is Different from Ukraine"... Possibility of No-Fly Zone Establishment

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Experts believe that unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has a higher possibility of direct U.S. military intervention, and localized conflicts to deter a full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan are also possible. However, given China's much larger economic scale and global economic influence compared to Russia, it is expected that both the U.S. and China will find it difficult to escalate into a prolonged or large-scale war.

David Zweig, Professor Emeritus at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, wrote in an article for the U.S. political media outlet Politico, "The reason the U.S. and the West refused to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine was to avoid the risk of nuclear confrontation with Russia in a geopolitically sensitive region bordering several European countries, but Taiwan is an island, so the situation is different," adding, "The waters in front of Taiwan, surrounded by international waters in the South China Sea, allow the U.S. to establish no-fly or navigation exclusion zones as it pleases, and it is more likely to engage in limited localized conflicts to demonstrate deterrence and prevent escalation."

With the increased risk of war, Taiwan is also actively enhancing its military capabilities. According to Taiwan media such as China Times, on the 14th, Chang Tun-han, spokesperson for the Taiwan Presidential Office, stated, "The Ministry of National Defense is reviewing a plan to extend the mandatory military service period by four months under the directive of President Tsai Ing-wen."

President Tsai herself has been touring military bases to emphasize strengthening security. During her visit to the Taoyuan Reserve Forces Shooting Range in northern Taiwan the previous day, President Tsai said, "The recent situation in Ukraine has proven that to defend the nation, in addition to international support and cooperation, the entire population must unite."

However, given that China's economic scale, assets, and liabilities are vastly larger than Russia's, it is expected that both the U.S. and China will avoid prolonged conflicts or large-scale escalation. According to data compiled by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Institute of International Finance (IIF), as of the end of last year, China's external financial assets amounted to $9.566 trillion (approximately 11,231 trillion KRW), more than nine times Russia's roughly $1 trillion. China's external financial liabilities stood at $7.0314 trillion, over 175 times larger than Russia's estimated $40 billion. If the U.S. and the West were to exclude China from the international financial messaging system (SWIFT) as they did with Russia, global investment banks could suffer massive losses.

◇Japan Raises "NATO-Style Nuclear Sharing"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Meanwhile, in Japan, which continues maritime territorial disputes with China and Russia, there are calls for nuclear sharing to strengthen defense.

According to NHK, the largest faction of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the "Abe faction," led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is strongly advocating that Japan should adopt NATO-style nuclear sharing. In an interview with Fuji TV on the 27th of last month, former Prime Minister Abe stated, "Japan is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and adheres to the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, but realistically, we should not taboo discussions about nuclear sharing."

NATO-style nuclear sharing refers to an agreement where non-nuclear NATO member countries host U.S. nuclear weapons on their territory and, in times of crisis, jointly control their use with the U.S. Currently, five NATO member countries?Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, and Turkey?maintain nuclear sharing agreements with the U.S. If Japan were to enter into a nuclear sharing agreement with the U.S., other U.S. military allies such as South Korea and Australia might also demand similar agreements, raising concerns about nuclear proliferation and an intensified arms race in the Indo-Pacific region.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.