[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea's 'Two Military Provocation Cards' in Hand

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] There is an assessment that North Korea may use the nuclear test and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch cards to prove its indication of withdrawing the moratorium in January. This is because remodeling of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site and the West Sea Satellite Launching Station is expected to proceed.

Recently, signs such as new buildings being constructed have been detected at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province.

In September 2018, North Korea promised to invite international experts to verify the complete dismantlement and destruction of the Dongchang-ri test site during the Pyongyang summit with President Moon Jae-in. In May of the same year, some tunnels at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site were blown up in the presence of foreign journalists. This was a measure following the declaration of a moratorium and the announcement of the nuclear test site closure at the Workers' Party plenary meeting in April of the same year.

However, recently, South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly detected movements of personnel and equipment in the Pyongyang Sunan area, which appear to be preparations for additional missile launches by North Korea.

Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in the U.S., released satellite images of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site taken recently by the commercial satellite company Maxar Technologies on the 7th (local time). The photos taken on the 4th show a new building constructed on a vacant lot that was empty on the 18th of last month. The images also confirmed piles of newly cut timber and sawdust stacked for building repairs within the nuclear facility.

Our government has also been monitoring the Punggye-ri area since the end of last year, as footprints and some construction equipment have increased, indicating increased movement of personnel and equipment around Punggye-ri.

Since Chairman Kim Jong-un visited the West Sea Satellite Launching Station, capable of launching long-range rockets that can be converted into ICBMs, and ordered the renovation of satellite rocket launch facilities, additional ICBM launches are also possible.

Military authorities predict additional launches because ‘live-fire tests’ to evaluate atmospheric re-entry technology have not yet been conducted. To complete an ICBM, North Korea must secure atmospheric re-entry vehicle (RV) technology following successful nuclear warhead miniaturization. Re-entry vehicle technology refers to fairing manufacturing technology. It is a technology possessed only by a few nuclear-armed countries such as the U.S., China, Russia, and India.

A government official said, “It is analyzed that North Korea has not fully secured nuclear miniaturization and atmospheric re-entry technology for ICBM warheads,” adding, “To improve technological completeness, additional nuclear tests or ICBM launches may be conducted.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.