"Record High COVID-19 Deaths" ... Rapid Antigen Tests Also Accepted Amid Surge in Cases

229 Deaths, Nearly 10,000 Cumulative Cases... Authorities: "Omicron Peak Within 10 Days"
On RAT Accuracy Controversy... "Higher Prevalence Increases Predictive Accuracy"

On the 4th, at the temporary screening clinic at Seoul Station, citizens are receiving rapid antigen tests as the number of new COVID-19 cases surged by about 70,000 in one day to 266,853. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

The health authorities' decision to recognize rapid antigen test (RAT) results from professional testing kits for COVID-19 confirmation starting from the 14th is due to the recent surge in confirmed cases, making it difficult to manage with only the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method. It has become frequent that it takes 2 to 3 days to notify test results after PCR testing. Delayed notification of test results not only increases concerns about additional infections but also leads to a chain of problems such as patients not receiving timely treatment and worsening their condition. The health authorities expect the Omicron variant wave to peak within the next 10 days, forecasting that the management of critically ill patients and those under home treatment will face the greatest challenge until early next month.

Can the Accuracy of Rapid Antigen Tests Be Trusted?

When confirming COVID-19 cases solely based on rapid antigen tests, there are issues of both false positives and false negatives. Regarding this, the health authorities claimed on the 11th that the level of risk is acceptable. In the current widespread epidemic, even if false positives occur, the probability of identifying confirmed cases is higher, and for false negatives, high-risk groups are immediately supplemented by undergoing PCR testing.

Lee Sang-won, head of the Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis Division at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said, "When the prevalence in the population is very high as it is now, the false positive rate relatively decreases, increasing the 'positive predictive value.'" He added, "Currently, if the rapid antigen test is positive, the probability that the PCR test is also positive is very high, around 90 to 95%." Regarding false negatives, he said, "Since there can be false negative cases even with rapid antigen tests, it is recommended that elderly people or those with underlying conditions immediately undergo PCR testing."

The government plans to improve the system starting next week so that mild in-hospital confirmed cases can receive treatment not only in negative pressure rooms but also in general wards or operating rooms. This is already being implemented at Seoul National University Hospital, Severance Hospital, and others. Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum stated, "It has been identified that three out of four COVID-19 patients currently hospitalized are using infectious disease-dedicated beds not because of COVID-19 but due to other underlying diseases," and added, "We earnestly request the medical community's active understanding and cooperation so that COVID-19 patients can be treated within the general medical system according to the current situation."

"Omicron Peak Within Ten Days"

The number of new COVID-19 confirmed cases, which had exceeded 300,000 for two consecutive days, approached 300,000 again on this day. As of midnight, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases increased by 282,987 from the previous day, reaching a cumulative total of 5,822,626.

The relatively lower number of confirmed cases is believed to be due to a decrease in testing on the previous day, which was the 20th presidential election day. However, compared to a week ago when daily new confirmed cases first exceeded 200,000 (219,224 on the 2nd), the current figure is 1.3 times higher.

Since the Omicron variant became the dominant strain in the country, new confirmed cases have been rapidly increasing. The average daily new confirmed cases over the past week (March 5?11) were 266,335, which is 1.44 times the average daily cases of the previous week (February 26?March 4) at 184,749, and 2.05 times the average daily cases two weeks ago (February 19?25) at 129,900. The average daily deaths over the past week were 185, which is 1.62 times the previous week's average (114) and 2.61 times the average two weeks ago (71).

Notably, 229 deaths due to COVID-19 occurred the previous day, marking the highest daily death toll since the domestic spread of COVID-19. The cumulative death toll has reached 9,875, nearing 10,000. The number of critically ill patients currently hospitalized is 1,116. The utilization rate of critical care beds is 61.5% (1,693 out of 2,751 beds in use), up 0.4 percentage points from the previous day (61.1%). The utilization rates for severe care beds and moderate care beds are 61.9% and 45.9%, respectively. The number of patients under home treatment has surpassed 1.3 million for the first time, reaching 1,318,051.

The health authorities forecast that the COVID-19 wave is currently near its peak and that the number of new confirmed cases may decrease in two weeks. Prime Minister Kim stated that the peak will occur within about ten days, with the scale reaching up to 370,000 daily cases on a weekly average basis. This is slightly higher than the health authorities' previous forecast at the end of last month, which predicted the peak at 354,000 cases on the 12th based on projections from multiple research institutions.

Lee said the day before, "According to the scenario that the health authorities currently consider most likely, the peak period is expected to be from this week through the next two weeks, followed by a possible decline." He explained, "However, the peak is more reasonably expected to appear as a rounded peak period rather than a sharp point."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.