[Yoon Seok-yeol Elected] Emphasis on Strengthening Defense with Additional THAAD Deployment

Reserve Mass Costs Reach 1.5 Trillion Won... Financial Burden
Gaps Still Remain in Various Areas

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Significant changes are expected in the defense sector if President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol assumes power. In particular, attention is focused on whether the promise to deploy additional THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) systems will be implemented.

Candidate Yoon has maintained the position that the THAAD system deployed in Seongju, Gyeongbuk by the U.S. military is insufficient for defending the Seoul metropolitan area. This is interpreted as a refusal to inherit the Moon Jae-in administration’s 2017 “three no’s” policy on THAAD (no additional THAAD deployment, no participation in the U.S. missile defense system, and no trilateral military alliance among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan).

However, if pushed forward, diplomatic repercussions with China are inevitable. In 2016, China implemented a high-intensity retaliation package including reducing official dialogue channels, imposing the “Hallyu ban,” and restricting Chinese tourists (Youke). Additional THAAD deployment would also face opposition from local residents at candidate sites, as well as issues related to deployment time and budget. To defend the Seoul metropolitan area, deployment in the Chungcheong region is unavoidable, but President-elect Yoon avoided related questions during his candidacy. According to the U.S. fiscal year 2014 data, the cost of one THAAD battery is approximately 1 trillion KRW. Including reserve missiles, the price rises to around 1.5 trillion KRW.

Under the policy of strengthening the ROK-U.S. alliance, joint military exercises are expected to continue. Last month, President-elect Yoon criticized social groups opposing the ROK-U.S. alliance, saying, “Who do the strong labor unions and some women’s groups opposing the ROK-U.S. joint exercises and demanding the withdrawal of U.S. troops stationed in Korea serve?” The ROK and U.S. have conducted joint exercises (Combined Command Post Training, CCPT) twice a year, in the first and second halves of the year.

How to respond to anticipated provocations from North Korea is also a point of interest. North Korea, which has recently conducted successive missile provocations, is expected to provoke again coinciding with the Day of the Sun (April 15), the birthday of Kim Il-sung. This year marks the 110th anniversary of the Day of the Sun. Since North Korea attaches special significance to milestone years such as 5-year and 10-year anniversaries, there is a high possibility of additional provocations through a “relay military demonstration.”

President-elect Yoon has pledged to raise soldiers’ monthly pay to 2 million KRW. This means tripling the current monthly pay for a sergeant, which is 676,100 KRW as of this year. The current annual budget for soldier salaries is 2.1 trillion KRW, and the People Power Party estimates that an additional 5.1 trillion KRW would be required to fulfill this pledge.

The problem is that the pay increase for officers and non-commissioned officers, which would rise alongside soldiers’ pay, was not included in the calculations. This year, the monthly pay for a first-grade sergeant is 1.7 million KRW, and for a first-grade second lieutenant is 1.75 million KRW. Since their pay must be higher than that of soldiers, a uniform increase of several hundred thousand KRW for all military personnel is inevitable.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.