"Unification Backlash" vs. "Desire for Regime Change": Record Early Voting Turnout, Different Interpretations by Ruling and Opposition Parties

Maximum Early Voting Rate 36.93%
Controversy Over Management of Voting for Confirmed and Quarantined Individuals

On the afternoon of the 5th, COVID-19 confirmed and quarantined individuals are voting at a temporary polling station in front of Seoul Station. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Intern Reporter Kim Jung-wan] As the early voting rate for the 20th presidential election reached an all-time high, both ruling and opposition parties have interpreted the results as favorable to their respective candidates. In particular, regarding Honam, which showed the highest turnout, the Democratic Party of Korea interpreted the votes as a strong backlash against the unification of Yoon Seok-yeol and Ahn Cheol-soo, while the People Power Party claimed that young voters in their 20s and 30s supported candidate Yoon. However, apart from the high turnout, various issues during the voting process involving COVID-19 confirmed cases have surfaced, and the ensuing disputes between the parties over early voting are expected to continue for some time.

The Central Election Commission (CEC) announced on the 6th that out of a total of 44,197,692 eligible voters, 16,323,602 participated in early voting conducted on the 4th and 5th, recording a turnout rate of 36.93%. This is the first time the early voting rate has surpassed 30% since early voting was first introduced in the nationwide local elections in June 2014. This exceeds the previous record of 26.69% set during the 21st general election in 2020 by 10.24 percentage points (P), and is also 10.87 P higher than the 26.06% recorded in the 19th presidential election in 2017.

The reasons for the high early voting rate are analyzed in various ways. First is the 'camp consolidation' following a razor-thin race. The 'poll publication ban' period began on the 3rd. According to polls released on the 2nd, the day before the ban, support rates for Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung and People Power Party candidate Yoon Seok-yeol showed an unprecedented close contest. This led to interpretations that voters, wanting to create a favorable situation for their preferred candidate, turned out in large numbers for early voting.

Another factor is that the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases exceeding 100,000 stimulated voters' desire to spread out their voting. Many participated in early voting out of concern that polling stations would be crowded on the main voting day, the 9th. Additionally, as the early voting system has become established, there has been a change in election culture. The nationwide early voting rate steadily increased from 11.49% in the 2014 local elections to 26.69% in the 2020 general elections. The competitive encouragement of early voting by both ruling and opposition parties is also analyzed as a contributing factor.

Meanwhile, both parties have offered self-serving interpretations regarding Honam, which showed high support rates amid the record early voting turnout. According to the final early voting results, the top three regions with the highest early voting rates were all in Honam: Jeonnam (51.45%), Jeonbuk (48.63%), and Gwangju (48.27%). Following these were Sejong (44.11%) and Gyeongbuk (41.02%), while the lowest was Gyeonggi (33.65%).

The Democratic Party focused on the high early voting rate in their 'stronghold' Honam region, analyzing it as a "strong backlash against the unification." Despite Honam's considerable support for Ahn Cheol-soo, the unification announcement with candidate Yoon on the 3rd led to a backlash, prompting many in Honam to participate in early voting. In the 2017 presidential election, candidate Ahn received 30.1% of the vote in Gwangju.

On the 6th, Woo Sang-ho, head of the Democratic Party's general election campaign headquarters, stated at a press conference, "Our supporters likely voted more," adding, "There was a backlash from Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters due to the unification backlash, the centrist voters showed resentment, and Lee Jae-myung's supporters consolidated." On the same day, party leader Song Young-gil said on Yonhap News TV, "The intensity and content of the consolidation on Lee Jae-myung's side seem much stronger," and "It seems a tremendous backlash is blowing."

The People Power Party analyzed the high early voting rate in Honam as "the relatively conservative 20s and 30s generation in Honam actively participated in early voting." Party leader Lee Jun-seok said, "I am confident that Honam's choice, corresponding to the increased early voting rate, is progressive and oriented toward change."

They also interpreted the high early voting rate as reflecting a "desire for regime change." Candidate Yoon said on his Facebook that day, "I deeply thank the people who showed their desire for regime change through the highest early voting rate ever." On the same day, Kwon Young-se, head of the People Power Party's election campaign headquarters, said at an expanded campaign meeting, "I bow my head in gratitude for the people's desire for regime change and their participation in voting," adding, "I heard that young people in their 20s and 30s lined up at early voting stations nationwide; we will engrave the values of fairness and common sense they desire in our hearts and never forget them."

Park Chan-jin, Deputy Secretary General of the Central Election Commission, is reporting on the confusion regarding early voting for confirmed cases on the afternoon of the 6th at the National Assembly's Public Administration and Security Committee meeting room.
The National Assembly's Public Administration and Security Committee, chaired by Seo Young-kyo, received an urgent briefing on the confusion surrounding early voting, with Park Chan-jin, Deputy Secretary General of the Central Election Commission, and Kim Jae-won, Director of the Election Bureau, in attendance. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Meanwhile, as controversies over poor management of early voting for COVID-19 confirmed and quarantined voters have erupted, the political fallout is intensifying. During the voting process for COVID-19 confirmed cases conducted between 5 and 6 p.m. on the 5th, the CEC did not prepare separate ballot boxes for confirmed and quarantined voters, citing the regulation that only one ballot box is installed per polling station. As a result, election assistants placed ballots in shopping bags and cardboard boxes before transferring them to the ballot box, leading to a flood of complaints from voters concerned about fraudulent voting.

The Democratic Party called for improvement measures, while the People Power Party criticized the violation of the principles of direct and secret voting. On the 7th, Lee Nak-yeon, head of the Democratic Party's general election committee, said at a campaign meeting held at the Democratic Party headquarters in Yeouido, "The Central Election Commission should present definite improvement measures and gain the understanding and forgiveness of the people" regarding the chaos in early voting for COVID-19 confirmed cases.

He added, "Even if improvement measures are prepared, thorough pre-inspection is necessary to ensure proper operation at the voting sites. This will prevent betrayal at the scene." He also criticized the CEC for its inadequate post-explanation, saying, "The chairman of the election commission reportedly did not even come to work on voting day," and added, "As the world's 16th and Asia's number one democracy and a model country for COVID-19 prevention, this is shameful," repeatedly criticizing the CEC.

Lee Jun-seok, leader of the People Power Party, criticized, "Efforts must be made to uphold the principle of secret voting as much as possible, and except for some exceptional cases such as absentee voting, voters should directly insert their ballots into the ballot box at the polling station, which is a principle that must be observed."

Meanwhile, the CEC issued an apology on the night of the 6th, stating, "We deeply apologize to the people for the great confusion and inconvenience caused during early voting by COVID-19 confirmed voters." Regarding this, the CEC has prepared and finalized special measures, including allowing confirmed voters to directly insert their ballots into the ballot box.

According to the CEC, on the main voting day, the 9th, COVID-19 confirmed and quarantined voters will be allowed temporary outings and can vote at the polling station in their residential jurisdiction after 6 p.m. Unlike early voting, they will not use temporary voting booths but will vote at the polling stations used by non-quarantined voters until 6 p.m. They will also use the same voting booths as non-quarantined voters and directly insert their marked ballots into the ballot box.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.