Gallup "Yoon 39%, Lee 38% in a neck-and-neck race in polls not reflecting Ahn's resignation"

by Na Juseok

Published 04 Mar.2022 11:02(KST)

Expected Vote Shares: Yoon 43.4%, Lee 40.8%, Ahn 10.9%, Shim 3.4%

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] In the final Gallup opinion poll before the presidential election, Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party presidential candidate, and Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, were shown to be in a close race within the margin of error. In last week's survey, Lee was ahead of Yoon within the margin of error, but this time Yoon has again taken the lead over Lee within the margin of error.

Gallup "Yoon 39%, Lee 38% in a neck-and-neck race in polls not reflecting Ahn's resignation"

Gallup announced that in a survey conducted from the 28th of last month to the 2nd of this month targeting 1,002 voters aged 18 and over nationwide, Yoon's support rate was 39%, while Lee's support rate was 38%. Compared to the previous survey, Yoon's support rate rose by 2 percentage points, whereas Lee's support rate remained the same as last week's survey.

However, this survey does not reflect the impact of the unification agreement between Yoon and Ahn Cheol-soo, the People Party leader, announced on the 3rd. According to the current Public Official Election Act, the publication of opinion polls is prohibited for six days before the election, limiting the results to surveys conducted up to the 2nd.

Ahn, who withdrew from the race, recorded a support rate of 12% in this survey, and Sim Sang-jung, the Justice Party presidential candidate, recorded 3%.

Separately from the support rates, Gallup also provided expected vote shares weighted by the probability of voting, voting intention, and realization rates by gender and age group. According to this, Yoon is projected to receive 43.4%, Lee 40.8%, Ahn 10.9%, Sim 3.4%, and other candidates 1.4%. The margin of error for this survey is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.