[So Jong-seop's Political Analysis] Will the Yoon-An Unity Become a Turning Point in the Presidential Election Outcome?

A Nail-Biting Presidential Election's Final Variable
"Change the Regime for a National Unity Government"
Yoon's Direct Leadership Holds Great Significance
Lee's Sense of Crisis Spurs Supporters to Unite

People Power Party presidential candidate Yoon Seok-yeol (left) and People’s Party presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo shake hands after concluding a unification press conference at the National Assembly Communication Hall on the morning of the 3rd. Photo by National Assembly Press Photographers Group

On March 3, six days before the presidential election, Yoon Seok-yeol, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, and Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the People’s Party, declared their candidate unification. The opposition unification was achieved. It was sudden. It changed the course of the presidential election once again. A situation that could become a turning point in the victory or defeat was created. Yoon, who became the unified opposition candidate, appears to be gaining momentum. The presidential race, which had been a close contest, is now shaking. The two declared, "We will replace the regime and create a national unity government."

Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, who had been gaining momentum by putting forward the ‘unified government theory’ and ‘political change theory,’ has grown more troubled. Lee sought to overturn the situation by unifying with Kim Dong-yeon, the presidential candidate of the New Wave. He was riding an upward trend and the atmosphere was not bad. It was a time when more stamina was required than ever. However, at this moment, he was instead struck by the opposition. It is even more painful because he secretly hoped that even if he could not bring in Ahn, Ahn would complete the race and the election would be held in a four-way contest.

Candidate Yoon achieved a twofold effect. First, he personally led and created the unification. He showed leadership that realized the wishes of opposition supporters. He also secured a stepping stone that could attract the centrist voters. According to the polling results so far, if unification occurs with Yoon, he is estimated to absorb about 40% of Ahn’s support base. However, unification has symbolic and psychological effects that go beyond simple arithmetic calculations. Gaining the image of ‘joint government’ as integration and cooperation is a side effect.

Ahn, who had been under pressure from opposition supporters to unify, now faces a new test regarding his political future. He secured a foundation to plan for tomorrow within the framework of the main opposition party, escaping the unstable future he would face if he had completed the race. Fierce competition is expected in the future over leadership with Oh Se-hoon, the mayor of Seoul, and Lee Jun-seok, the leader of the People Power Party. His fate will be decided in this process.

The candidate who has become more anxious is Lee. In short, it is a situation of ilmodowon (日暮途遠, “the sun is setting and the road ahead is long”). The reality is that he has no choice but to bet on the total mobilization of his support base. Although time is tight, there is still time.

Going forward, Lee is expected to focus his appeal on women in their 20s and 30s and supporters of Sim Sang-jung, the presidential candidate of the Justice Party. He also seems to be hoping for the consolidation of Honam voters who feel a sense of crisis over the opposition unification. The final battle of the presidential election that will decide the fate of the two leading candidates, Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-yeol, is unfolding.

Political Editor kumkang21@asiae.co.kr

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.