[The Editors' Verdict] The New World Order: How Should We Respond?

Western countries, including the United States, are intensifying sanctions against Russia, which invaded Ukraine. In response to being expelled from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and having transactions with the Russian central bank blocked, Putin has even played the nuclear threat card.

It is difficult to predict where this war will end. The first ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine ended without any gains. Although the Ukrainian people are burning with a will to resist, if Russia unleashes concentrated firepower, it will ultimately be difficult to hold out. In this case, as President Putin aims, a pro-Russian puppet government may be established in Ukraine, and security threats in Europe could escalate further. Fortunately, if Western economic sanctions prove effective, Russia will retreat from Ukraine and make concessions at an appropriate level.

One thing is clear: regardless of the outcome of this war, the international order will be different from what it has been so far. Recently, The New York Times (NYT) explained that Russia's invasion of Ukraine occurred amid a process where democratic forces are weakening while authoritarianism is gaining strength.

There is also an analysis that this war symbolizes the collapse of the unipolar system represented by the 'Pax Americana.' The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) warned that the United States will face a difficult time competing with two 'superpowers,' China and Russia, in the future. This is the view of many international relations experts who foresee the unfolding of a 'new Cold War' era.

Looking at the attitudes of countries responding to the Ukraine situation, the new Cold War is already becoming a reality. Several European countries that had been passive in dealing with the Ukraine crisis are now actively imposing sanctions on Russia. Even neutral Switzerland has joined the sanctions against Russia, and Germany has announced plans to increase its defense budget to 2% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

Japan is one of the leading countries imposing sanctions on Russia. After announcing independent sanctions against Russia separate from the Group of Seven (G7), U.S. President Joe Biden even sent a letter of thanks to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

India, a member of the Quad, an informal U.S. security consultative group, maintains a neutral stance. India is known to import a significant amount of weapons from Russia. Among major countries, China is almost the only one supporting Russia's position. China is carefully weighing the pros and cons of how this situation will affect U.S.-China relations.

South Korea, which has maintained various cooperative relations with Russia under the banner of the 'New Northern Policy,' was lukewarm about sanctions against Russia due to concerns about bilateral relations and corporate damages. It was only on the 28th of last month that South Korea explicitly stated it would join international sanctions.

In terms of relations with Russia or economic impact, South Korea cannot be said to be closer or more affected than European Union (EU) countries. Germany imports 40% of its natural gas from Russia. There were even concerns that if Russia retaliated, an energy crisis could occur, causing many citizens to freeze to death.

Nevertheless, democratic countries are actively participating in sanctions against Russia because the justification that 'aggression by force' must not be allowed to succeed is stronger.

This is even more urgent for 'pivot states' like South Korea and Taiwan rather than great powers. Unlike other ASEAN countries that are cautious, the words of Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, who declared participation in sanctions against Russia, apply equally to us: "If international relations are based on 'might makes right,' the world will be a dangerous place for small countries."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.