A Tense Ukraine Crisis on the Brink, China's Gains and Losses

US Indo-Pacific Focus Shifts to Europe Amid US-China Tensions Cooling
Concerns Over International Trust and Image if Russia is Openly Supported

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] As relations between the United States and Russia edge toward a critical crisis, China's calculations have become complicated. China supports Russia's position on the Ukraine situation but cannot openly side with Russia in reality.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, from China's perspective, which has conflicts with the United States over Taiwan independence, South China Sea territorial claims, and human rights issues in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, the Ukraine situation is not entirely negative. There is cautious analysis that the geopolitical shift will inevitably divert the U.S.'s core focus toward Ukraine.

The state-run Xinhua News Agency reported on the 23rd that after Russia recognized the independence of the pro-Russian separatist forces in eastern Ukraine, the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, the game between Russia, the U.S., and other Western powers has become more complicated, stating that the Ukraine crisis originated from the NATO eastward expansion policy of the U.S. and other Western countries.

Xinhua pointed out that the essence of the crisis lies in the U.S.'s broken promises, such as supporting Ukraine's NATO membership and providing military aid to Ukraine, and conveyed Russian President Vladimir Putin's argument that the Ukrainian government should abandon its NATO membership bid and maintain a neutral status.

China on Alert for U.S. Indo-Pacific Power Dispersion

China interprets Russia's recognition of the independence of the pro-Russian separatist forces in eastern Ukraine as effectively nullifying the 2015 Minsk peace agreement. There is a view that the crisis may be prolonged.

In this regard, the state-run Global Times forecasted that the U.S. faces a situation where it must allocate more resources to Europe than to the Indo-Pacific region.

Li Haidong, professor at the Institute of International Relations, China Foreign Affairs University, said, "At least for the next few years, the U.S. must focus on Europe," and predicted, "The intense strategic competition arena for the U.S. will shift from the Indo-Pacific to Europe."

The Global Times diagnosed that in the face of the brinkmanship between Russia and the U.S., the U.S. will not be able to pursue its Indo-Pacific strategy, and if it insists on doing so, it will face results similar to Afghanistan.

This is interpreted as an expectation that U.S. pressure on China in the Indo-Pacific region will decrease. It also implies that China should further expand its influence by exploiting the U.S.'s neglect in the region. The tense relationship between the U.S. and Russia is calculated by China to potentially be advantageous.

China Concerned About Loss of Trust in the International Community

It is also a reality that China cannot actively side with Russia regarding the Ukraine crisis. Since China has emphasized multilateralism and the role of the United Nations (UN), there are concerns that it could fall into self-contradiction.

In fact, at a regular briefing the previous day, when foreign reporters flooded the Chinese Foreign Ministry with questions about Ukraine, China reiterated its position that the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be respected and that the purposes and principles of the UN Charter must be jointly upheld.

Foreign media questioned the Chinese government’s official stance on issues related to the Ukraine crisis, including Russia's recognition of the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic as violations of Ukraine's sovereignty, UN Secretary-General Ant?nio Guterres's remarks on breaches of the UN Charter principles, China's position on Western sanctions against Russia, and whether China exerts influence over Russia. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry only gave a general answer emphasizing negotiations and resolving differences among all parties.

It appears that the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed only a principled stance out of concern that openly supporting the Russian government could lead to joint condemnation from the international community along with Russia.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.