[Choi Min-gyu's Baseball Prism] Beijing Olympics 'Home Advantage' Was Not Special

Among 23 Past Tournaments, 21 Host Countries Saw Gold Medal Increases
South Korea, Japan, and Others Also Enjoyed Home Advantage
Referees Face Pressure from 'Conformity Theory' Favoring Home Teams

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 20th, the 24th Beijing Winter Olympics came to a close.

The host country China ranked third overall among 91 participating countries with a record high of 9 gold medals, 4 silver medals, and 2 bronze medals. In the 2018 PyeongChang Games, China ranked 16th with 1 gold, 6 silver, and 2 bronze medals. This performance also far surpassed their previous best, 7th place at the 2010 Vancouver Games (5 gold, 2 silver, 4 bronze).

China’s rapid progress sparked controversy over ‘biased judging.’ Particularly in short track speed skating, a sport where South Korea is strong, judging issues became a major concern. On the 7th, when South Korea’s Hwang Daeheon and Lee Junseo were disqualified in the men’s 1000m semifinals, public opinion in South Korea surged.

China won 8 more gold medals than in the PyeongChang Games. This increase in gold medals by a host country compared to the previous Games ties Russia’s record at the 2014 Sochi Games for first place. However, the total number of medals increased by only 6. This falls far short of the 21-medal increase achieved by the United States at the 2002 Salt Lake City Games. While the increase in medal count ranks joint 6th, the Beijing Games featured a record 327 medals in total. In terms of proportion of total medals, China ranked 16th historically.

We examined the ‘home advantage’ in Winter Olympics history from the inaugural 1924 Chamonix (France) Games to this year’s Beijing Games. The gold and total medals won by the host country were compared with the previous and subsequent Games. Excluding the inaugural Games, in 21 out of 23 Games the host country increased its gold medal count. The probability is 91.3%. The probability of an increase in total medals, including silver and bronze, was also 91.3%. Except for two occasions, all performances improved. Conversely, when the host country competed in the next Games away from home, the probability of a decrease in gold medals was 72.7%, and a decrease in total medals was 81.8%.

On average, host countries at the Winter Olympics won 4.7 gold medals and 11.2 total medals. This was an increase of 2.2 gold and 3.6 total medals compared to the previous Games (2.5 gold / 7.6 total). The overall ranking also improved from an average of 6.5th to 4.8th place. At the subsequent Games held away from home, the average gold and total medals dropped to 2.2 and 7.1 respectively, a decrease of 2.5 gold and 4.1 total medals. Most host countries reverted to their pre-hosting performance levels. This strongly suggests that home advantage is a significant factor in the Winter Olympics. The same applies to the Summer Olympics. China in 2022 was not a particularly exceptional case.

The Beijing Games were the fourth Winter Olympics held in East Asia. Before China, both South Korea and Japan had hosted the Games and enjoyed substantial home advantage. Japan did not win any medals at the 1968 Grenoble (France) Games. Across the previous eight Games, Japan had only won one silver medal. However, as the host in the 1972 Sapporo Games, Japan won one gold, one silver, and one bronze medal. At the second Games held in Nagano in 1998, Japan won 5 gold and 10 total medals, an increase of 4 gold and 6 total medals compared to the 1994 Lillehammer (Norway) Games. South Korea, which won 8 medals including 3 gold at the Sochi Games, increased its tally by 2 gold and 9 total medals at PyeongChang.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Home advantage is an important characteristic that occurs in almost all sports. In sports betting, bookmakers consider home/away status as one of the most critical variables when setting odds. GraceNote, a subsidiary of the polling company Nielsen, predicted before the Beijing Games that China would win 6 gold and 13 total medals, significantly better than the previous Games. This calculation reflected home advantage.

There are several explanations for the occurrence of home advantage. One hypothesis is that referees feel pressured to make decisions favorable to the home team. This borrows from the psychological ‘conformity theory,’ which states that group pressure changes individual behavior.

Economist Tobias Moskowitz and sports journalist John Wertheim researched umpire decisions in Major League Baseball from 2002 to 2008 during 3 balls and 2 strikes counts. They found that when pitchers threw pitches on the edge of the strike zone, home team batters received 5% more walks and struck out 5% less than away team batters. Home teams benefited significantly from umpire decisions in these ‘crucial situations’ where umpires felt pressure.

Soccer exhibits a much stronger home advantage than baseball. The German Bundesliga is considered a league with relatively less home advantage. Many Bundesliga stadiums have a large distance between the stands and the field, reducing conformity pressure. It is no coincidence that the most controversial judging issues at the 2014 Sochi and 2022 Beijing Games occurred in figure skating and short track speed skating, sports where referees have significant influence.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Moskowitz and Wertheim interpreted the conformity pressure on referees as an unconscious effect. However, the Olympics involve much larger resources than professional baseball or soccer and are led by powerful entities such as nations. Therefore, there is a higher likelihood that factors beyond unconscious conformity pressure influence decisions. This is especially true if the host country’s Olympic performance is tied to national or leader prestige in an authoritarian regime. This is why China became the target of suspicion regardless of the actual judging details. Such occurrences are not uncommon in mega sports events like the Olympics. The 1986 Asian Games and 1988 Olympics held in Seoul under an authoritarian regime are examples, where attempts to bribe referees occurred in some sports.

The Olympics pursue the ideal of world peace through sports. However, they have also been a stage where nationalism between countries is openly expressed. The Olympics’ history has never been free from international or host country domestic politics. But the more politics interferes in sports, the less fair sports become.

After the short track judging controversy, leading presidential candidates from both ruling and opposition parties competed to ride the wave of public sentiment. It is irresponsible leadership to accept ‘biased judging’ as a given without clear facts. The Chinese government, notorious for its ‘wolf warrior diplomacy,’ admonished Korean media and politicians for ‘inciting anti-China sentiment,’ breaking diplomatic protocol. All these are examples of sports being used for political purposes. As someone who has worked in sports media for a considerable time, this is deeply regrettable.

Director, Korea Baseball Society

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.