[Summary] Tensions Rise in Ukraine... Will the US-Russia Summit Mark a Turning Point?

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina, Reporter Lee Hyun-woo] Amid escalating fears that Russia's invasion of Ukraine could become a reality "within days," a summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin has been arranged. The upcoming meeting between the two leaders amid a hair-trigger war crisis is seen as a potential turning point for resolving the situation. Currently, it is reported that 75% of Russia's main combat units stationed near the border are deployed targeting Ukraine in an urgent situation.

◇ U.S.-Russia Summit Confirmed...Will It Lead to a Dramatic Resolution of the Ukraine Crisis?

According to the ?lys?e Palace, the French presidential office, on the 20th (local time), the U.S.-Russia summit was suddenly arranged at the proposal of French President Emmanuel Macron. President Macron spoke with President Putin and then had a 15-minute call with President Biden on the same day, proposing the summit.

However, the summit will only take place on the condition that Russia does not invade Ukraine. The U.S.-Russia foreign ministers' meeting originally scheduled for the 24th will serve as a preparatory session for the summit agenda. The White House confirmed in a statement issued by Press Secretary Jen Psaki that "President Biden has, in principle, accepted a meeting with President Putin if the invasion of Ukraine does not occur," adding, "We are always ready to engage in diplomacy."

Until just before the phone call with President Macron, President Biden's actions were urgent. When Russia extended joint military exercises with Belarus, originally scheduled to end that day, citing the conflict in the Donbas region, the National Security Council (NSC) was convened unusually on a Sunday for about two hours to discuss countermeasures. Immediately after the meeting, a planned trip to Wilmington, Delaware, was canceled. It is also very unusual for a president's schedule to be canceled so abruptly while traveling to another state.

U.S. President Joe Biden (center) convened the National Security Council (NSC) at the White House on Sunday, the 20th (local time), to discuss the situation in Ukraine. [Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

This is interpreted as a judgment that the war clouds surrounding Ukraine are serious. Tensions further escalated as signs emerged indicating that President Putin had decided to invade.

CNN reported, citing U.S. officials, that out of 160 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs), 120 have been deployed within 60 km of Ukraine. This accounts for 75% of Russia's main combat units. CNN also reported, "Among the already known 50 air defense battalions, about 35 are deployed targeting Ukraine, and 50 medium-to-large bombers along with 500 fighters and fighter-bombers are within striking distance of Ukraine." Including pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists, the number of Russian troops near the border is estimated to be up to 190,000.

◇ White House Accepts Summit While Remaining Alert to Invasion: "Seems to Be Preparing for a Full-Scale Attack Soon"

Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence agencies have obtained information that Russian military commanders have received orders to proceed with the invasion.

According to CBS Face the Nation, the Russian military is moving closer to the border under these orders, and commanders are also planning specific ground operations. This information underlies President Biden's statement on the 18th during a national address that he believes President Putin has decided to invade.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed concern in a CBS interview, saying, "Everything we are seeing indicates that President Putin's decision to invade is progressing."

The U.S. emphasizes a diplomatic solution but remains vigilant toward Russia. Press Secretary Psaki stated, "As President Biden has repeatedly said, we will pursue diplomacy until the moment an invasion begins," but warned, "If Russia chooses war, we are prepared to impose severe consequences swiftly."

She added at the end of the statement, "Currently, Russia appears to be preparing for a full-scale attack on Ukraine soon," expressing concern. This indicates that despite preparations for the U.S.-Russia summit, the possibility of invasion remains.

Experts analyze that the U.S. government's real-time disclosure of Russian military movements and scenarios is making it difficult for Russia to invade. Michael McFaul, a Russia expert and former U.S. ambassador to Russia, tweeted that "The Biden administration's approach of releasing real-time information is blocking Russia's strategy to create a climate of fear," and "Russia will find it difficult to invade Ukraine even to prove that U.S. claims of invasion are false." Western countries, including the U.S., have long warned of so-called 'false flag operations' where Russia attempts to blame Ukraine for armed conflicts in disputed areas as a pretext for invasion.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.