Lee Jae-myung 35.2%, Yoon Seok-youl 39.2%... Neck-and-neck Within Margin of Error

Ahn Cheol-soo 8.1%, Sim Sang-jung 3.7%, Huh Kyung-young 1.7%
Yoon Leads in Seoul, Close Race in Incheon
Regime Change 54.9%, Regime Continuation 36.3%

With about 20 days left until the presidential election, Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate (left), and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate (right), are shown to be in a close race within the margin of error.
[Photo by Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoon Seul-gi] With 20 days remaining until the 20th presidential election, a poll released on the 17th showed that Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, and Yoon Seok-youl, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, are in a close race within the margin of error.

In a poll conducted by KBS, MBC, and SBS, commissioned to Ipsos, Korea Research, and Hankook Research, surveying 2,006 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide from the 15th to 16th (response rate 20.2%, margin of error ±2.2%p at 95% confidence level), Yoon’s support rate was 39.2%, while Lee’s was 35.2%. The gap between the two candidates was 4 percentage points (p), which is within the margin of error.

Following them, Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party had 8.1%, Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party 3.7%, and Heo Kyung-young of the National Revolutionary Party 1.7%. Those who said they had 'no preferred candidate' accounted for 8.2%, and those who responded 'don’t know/no answer' were 3.6%.

Among the active voters who said they would 'definitely vote,' Lee had 38%, and Yoon had 43.5%, with Yoon leading Lee.

Looking at support by age group, Lee led among those in their 40s, while Yoon was ahead among those in their 20s (ages 18?29), 60s, and 70s and older.

By region, Lee led in Honam, while Yoon was ahead in Yeongnam, Gangwon, and Jeju. In the 'key battleground' metropolitan area, Lee had 30.0% in Seoul and 37.2% in Incheon-Gyeonggi, while Yoon had 41.8% in Seoul and 37.6% in Incheon-Gyeonggi. Yoon led in Seoul, and the race was close in Incheon-Gyeonggi.

When asked 'Regardless of support, who do you think will be elected president?' Yoon received 46.3%, Lee 40%, with a gap of 6.3 percentage points outside the margin of error. Ahn had 1.7%, and Sim 0.3%.

On the question 'Who should unify as a single candidate?' Yoon received 42.4%, and Ahn 45.3%. Specifically, among supporters of 'regime change,' more favored unification behind Yoon (69.4%), while among supporters of 'regime continuation,' Ahn was more supported (74.9%). Notably, 74.9% of Lee’s supporters chose Ahn, showing a strong tendency for the ruling party’s supporters to rally behind Ahn.

Regarding 'regime change or continuation,' 54.9% favored 'regime change,' and 36.3% favored 'regime continuation.'

In the evaluation of President Moon Jae-in’s administration, 43.7% responded positively, and 54% negatively.

Party support rates were Democratic Party 34.9%, People Power Party 38.4%, Justice Party 4.9%, and People’s Party 4.4%.

This survey was conducted via wireless telephone interviews. For more details, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.