[So Jongseop's Political Analysis] Presidential Election, 'Corona Variable' Rapidly Emerging! Who Benefits?

Lee Jae-myung Emphasizes 'Leader Strong in Crisis,' Yoon Seok-yeol Highlights 'Quarantine Judgment Theory'
Pros and Cons Likely to Depend on Defense of Quarantine Judgment Theory and Supporter Consolidation

On the morning of the 17th, when the number of new COVID-19 cases reached 93,135 the day before and critically ill patients surged to 389, citizens were lined up waiting for tests at the temporary screening clinic at Seoul Station in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News

The 'COVID-19 variable' has suddenly emerged in the presidential election. As of midnight on the 17th, the Central Disease Control Headquarters reported that the number of new COVID-19 cases nationwide increased by 93,135. This is an increase of about 35,000 cases in just two days from 57,175 cases on the 15th. The number of critically ill patients hospitalized reached 389, and the number of people under home treatment exceeded 300,000 for the first time.

How will the 'COVID-19 variable' affect the presidential election? From a situational perspective, it is not a favorable situation for the ruling party. Although the number of critically ill patients is being managed relative to the number of confirmed cases, it is not a situation to loudly promote the previously touted 'K-quarantine.' Also, even though social distancing measures have been eased, while the dissatisfaction of self-employed people may somewhat subside, it does not seem likely to provide significant political advantage. Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, is emphasizing himself as a 'leader strong in crisis' in response.

Then, is the 'COVID-19 variable' advantageous for the opposition? In this regard, voter turnout is the key. Election results materialize only when voters cast their ballots at polling stations. As of the 16th, the age distribution of confirmed cases in Seoul is 36.7% for the 20s and 30s age group, 26.5% for the 40s and 50s, and 11.2% for the 60s and 70s. The opposition is worried that the 20s-30s and 60s-70s age groups, considered favorable to them, might not come out to vote due to fear of infection. In the 2017 presidential election, the highest voter turnout was among those in their 60s (84.1%), followed by those in their 70s (81.8%). Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party candidate, is preparing to highlight the 'quarantine judgment theory.'

Ultimately, the 'COVID-19 variable' is more about how it is handled than the variable itself. The ruling party’s challenge is how to defend against the 'quarantine judgment theory,' and the opposition’s challenge is how effectively they can mobilize their supporters to the polls. The advantages and disadvantages are expected to vary depending on the outcome.

Political Editor

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.