"100,000 Daily COVID-19 Cases Possible Within 3-4 Weeks... Omicron Wave Expected to End Around July"

Professor Jeong Jae-hoon: "It May Take 4-8 Weeks to Reach the Peak... Highly Transmissible Omicron Variant Requires a Different Response"
Professor Eom Jung-sik Also Says, "100,000 Confirmed Cases Possible Within 3-4 Weeks"

As the daily number of COVID-19 cases continues to set new records, experts predict that the daily cases could exceed 100,000 as early as the beginning of March.

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoon Seul-gi] As the spread of the COVID-19 Omicron variant accelerates, consecutively breaking records for the highest number of new confirmed cases, experts predict that daily confirmed cases will exceed 100,000 as early as the beginning of March.

On the 3rd, Professor Jung Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine appeared on MBC Radio's 'Kim Jong-bae's Focus' and said, "It is very cautious to mention numbers on air," but added, "I expect the daily new confirmed cases to exceed 100,000."

Professor Jung stated, "There are about five teams forecasting the epidemic in our country. These include the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency team, our research team, and many experts. Although the numbers vary depending on the models and variables used, most common forecasts expect the peak of the epidemic to reach at least around 100,000 cases per day."

Regarding the timing of the surge in confirmed cases, Professor Jung predicted, "I think it could take about 4 to 8 weeks from now, and the peak period may be prolonged, during which the number of cases neither increases nor decreases significantly."

He further emphasized that the highly transmissible Omicron variant requires a different response compared to the Delta variant. Professor Jung explained, "The transmissibility of the Omicron variant has increased significantly, so we inevitably see numbers of confirmed cases that we have never experienced before. However, considering the severity rate, our country has a high booster vaccination rate and has introduced oral antiviral treatments, so the severity rate is slightly lower than expected. I think we need to change our perspective a bit compared to the Delta variant."

Professor Eom Jung-sik, Department of Infectious Diseases, Gachon University./Photo by CBS Radio 'Kim Hyun-jung's News Show' capture.

Professor Eom Jung-sik of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Gachon University also predicted that new confirmed cases will exceed 100,000 within the next 3 to 4 weeks. On the same day, appearing on CBS Radio's 'Kim Hyun-jung's News Show,' Professor Eom said, "It seems certain that daily confirmed cases will exceed 30,000 this week or early next week," and added, "We are likely to experience an explosive increase in confirmed cases over the next 2 to 3 months."

Professor Eom stated, "The last measured reproduction number was about 1.54. If this reproduction number is applied as is and the current level of quarantine measures is maintained, it is possible to reach 100,000 cases within 3 to 4 weeks at the longest." The reproduction number indicates how many people one infected person infects; if this number exceeds 1, it means the epidemic tends to continue.

Professor Eom explained that after the Omicron variant pandemic, the proportion of the population with immunity will increase, leading to a reduction in the scale of the epidemic and the rate of critical cases. He said, "Current prediction models forecast that the Omicron epidemic will end around June to July," and added, "The probability of experiencing a large-scale epidemic like now is expected to decrease."

However, he noted, "Unlike the decrease in fatality rate, there is still a possibility of risk, so it is necessary to continue maintaining protective strategies."

Regarding some European countries such as the UK easing or lifting quarantine regulations, including removing masks despite the spread of the Omicron variant, Professor Eom said, "(Countries like the UK and Norway) started the Omicron epidemic earlier than us and are already passing the peak. It is difficult to make a simple comparison." He explained, "For example, yesterday, the UK had over 500 deaths. It is difficult to simply compare with us or directly reflect that situation in our policy decisions."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.