‘Wall Street Oracle’ Byron Wien’s Top 10 Predictions for This Year: “Gold Prices to Rise 20% and Fed to Hike Rates Four Times”

[Asia Economy Reporter Seulgina Jo] Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone, known as the "Wall Street oracle," predicted that while the U.S. stock market will remain unchanged this year, gold prices will rise more than 20% to reach an all-time high. The U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), is expected to implement four interest rate hikes within the year.

According to Blackstone, the largest asset management firm in the U.S., Wien and Chief Investment Strategist Joe Zidle released a report titled "10 Surprises for 2022" on the 3rd (local time) outlining these forecasts. Wien, who has worked in investment on Wall Street for over 50 years, has been publishing at the beginning of each year ten predictions with over a 50% probability of occurring, focusing on financial, industrial, and political issues since 1986 when he was a chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley.

In his 37th report this year, Wien forecasted that despite strong corporate earnings, the S&P 500 index will show little progress in the U.S. stock market in 2022 due to the combined effects of rising interest rates. He expects the Fed to complete tapering this year and raise interest rates four times by the end of the year, which is more than the three hikes suggested in last month's Fed dot plot. The annual inflation rate is expected to reach 4.5%, indicating that inflation will not be merely "transitory."

Among these, gold, considered a representative safe-haven asset, is expected to rise 20% and hit an all-time high. Gold prices rose last year amid inflation concerns but stabilized following the Fed's active response to inflation. Byron Wien stated, "Investors will seek gold as a safe asset and an inflation hedge." He explained that even as the cryptocurrency market, which had dispersed investment demand, continues to grow, gold will reclaim its title as the "safe haven for emerging wealthy individuals." West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, currently priced in the $70 per barrel range, is projected to exceed $100 this year.

Despite the recent rapid spread of the Omicron variant, there is also a view that major gatherings will return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by the end of this year. Wien said, "COVID-19 will remain an issue in both developed and developing countries," but added, "In the U.S., most things will normalize." It is expected that most people will work in offices three to four days a week and participate in public events such as theaters, concerts, and sports stadiums.

Additionally, Wien predicted that fusion technology will emerge as a future energy source, replacing nuclear power, and that ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance), which many companies have emphasized in recent years, will develop beyond mere corporate policy declarations. He also foresaw early signs of conflict between China and the U.S. over supply chain control related to the lithium battery market.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.