Two-Week Extension of Social Distancing... Still Heading to '10,000 People'

KIST COVID-19 Simulation
"Even with current distancing, daily cases to exceed 10,000 next month"
269 new Omicron confirmed cases... 83 domestic infections

Movie theaters and performance venues' operating hours changed from 10 PM to 9 PM start
Department stores and large marts also introduce 'vaccine pass'

On the 31st, the last day of 2021, a banner restricting access during sunrise hours due to COVID-19 prevention measures is hung at Namsan, Seoul, a popular sunrise spot. The last sunset and the first sunrise of the new year are expected to be observable under clear weather conditions. However, many sunset and sunrise spots are closed, making it difficult for citizens to visit these locations to welcome the new year. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

[Asia Economy reporters Chunhee Lee and Daehyun Kim] The government extended the high-intensity social distancing measures, including limiting private gatherings to four people and restrictions on restaurant and cafe operations, for two more weeks because the number of critically ill COVID-19 patients remains in the 1,000 range and the Omicron variant is spreading rapidly. Even if the current level of distancing is maintained, there are concerns that the number of new confirmed cases could exceed 10,000, making it difficult to loosen the reins on quarantine measures.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 31st at midnight, there were 4,875 new COVID-19 cases reported. This is 1,358 fewer than the 6,233 cases reported on the same day of the previous week. The weekly average of locally transmitted cases also continued to decline for the second consecutive week, standing at 4,853.1. Authorities assessed that the downward trend in COVID-19 cases has stalled, raising expectations for easing social distancing. Although there was speculation about easing operating hour restrictions at some multi-use facilities, adjustments were limited to minor changes for movie theaters and performance venues.

Concerns of '10,000 New Cases' Even with Current Distancing... Impact of Rapid Omicron Surge

However, concerns grew that even if current quarantine measures are maintained, the number of new cases could reach 10,000 next month, and easing restrictions could lead to uncontrollable spread. As a result, the current social distancing measures were extended for two weeks. According to a COVID-19 spread simulation by the Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST) based on different distancing adjustments, even if current measures continue, daily confirmed cases are expected to exceed 10,000 by mid to late next month. However, the spread is projected to somewhat subside by the end of January.

If distancing measures are eased, the number of new cases is expected to increase more steeply. If the private gathering limit is raised to eight people while maintaining time restrictions, cases could rise to 14,000 by the end of January. Even if the private gathering limit remains at four people but restaurant and cafe operating hours are extended until 10 p.m., a secondary gathering effect could occur, increasing the number of confirmed cases by 59% to 18,000 by the end of next month.

This analysis, which predicts a resurgence of the currently slowing spread, is influenced by the rapid transmissibility of the Omicron variant. KIST assumed that Omicron’s transmission rate is on average four times higher than the existing Delta variant. Even with an 80% third-dose vaccination rate among the high-risk elderly population, Omicron’s rapid spread is expected to cause a steeper increase in cases. On the morning of the same day on MBC’s ‘Kim Jong-bae’s Focus,’ Kwon Jun-wook, director of the National Institute of Health, said, "Omicron is rapidly becoming the dominant strain," adding, "There will soon be a time when COVID-19 essentially becomes Omicron."

On the 29th, an official at the Daejeon Health and Environment Research Institute in Guseong-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon, is checking the reagents after securing a diagnostic kit that detects the COVID-19 Omicron variant. [Image source=Yonhap News]

In fact, the number of Omicron variant infections increased by 269 in just one day. Considering that 625 cases had been confirmed until the previous day, nearly half of the existing cumulative infections were added in a single day. Notably, 83 of these were new domestic infections. Until now, the highest number of daily domestic Omicron infections was only 49. This increase is attributed to the deployment of rapid Omicron PCR test kits at frontline sites starting the previous day, which accelerated result reporting.

Despite government efforts to secure hospital beds, the intensive care unit (ICU) bed occupancy rate dropped to 66.5% nationwide and 68.0% in the metropolitan area, but the number of critically ill patients remains high. On this day, the number of critically ill patients was 1,056, marking 11 consecutive days with over 1,000 patients.

Professor Choi Jae-wook of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Korea University Ansan Hospital criticized, "I don’t know how long social distancing will continue to rely solely on the sacrifices of the public and self-employed," adding, "There is no plan to normalize the healthcare system to ultimately resolve the issue of critically ill patients." Professor Kim Yoon of Seoul National University College of Medicine also acknowledged the necessity of social distancing as a time-buying measure but pointed out, "Small business owners need some indicators to predict when they can return to normal life, but there is no promise regarding this at all."

Movie and Performance Venues Eased... Department Stores and Large Marts Tightened

As the government postponed the transition to Phase 2 of the gradual recovery to daily life (With Corona) and announced special quarantine measures for four weeks due to the worsening COVID-19 situation, a notice regarding food consumption is posted at a movie theater in Seoul on the 30th. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

The government maintained most of the current social distancing levels but made minor adjustments for movie theaters and performance venues. Currently, these facilities have a 10 p.m. operating hour restriction based on the end time of performances or screenings. This has caused complaints because movies longer than three hours cannot start screenings during peak commuting hours, disrupting operations.

Considering this, the operating restrictions for movie theaters and performance venues will be set based on a 9 p.m. start time for screenings and performances instead of a 10 p.m. closing time. However, the end time must not exceed midnight. Previously, a 2 hour 30 minute movie could only be screened once at 7:30 p.m. during the evening, but now it can be screened twice.

Vaccination proof and negative test confirmation (quarantine pass) will now be mandatory at department stores and large marts, which were previously exempt. Authorities had not applied the quarantine pass to these facilities due to difficulties in access control. However, considering the quarantine risk and fairness with other facilities, the pass will be required at large stores over 3,000 square meters. To minimize confusion, a one-week preparation period will be given, with enforcement starting on the 10th of next month, followed by an additional one-week guidance period.

The introduction of the youth quarantine pass, which faced strong opposition from parents and the academy community, has been postponed from February next year to March, when the new school term begins. Additionally, a one-month guidance period will be provided. The government explained, "Due to the short vaccination period during the December final exam period, the youth vaccination completion rate is still insufficient, and this measure considers the academic schedule, including the March school reopening next year."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.