[The Editors' Verdict] National Security Strategy Challenges for the Next Administration

[Kim Jong-ha, Dean of Business Administration and Graduate School of National Defense Strategy at Hannam University] One of the most important national security strategic challenges that the new government in 2022 will face is the strategic competition between the U.S. and China, Russia’s cunning exploitation of this competition to advance its national interests, and the search for South Korea’s path amid the reorganization of the East Asian regional order.

It is a critically important security strategic task to address the security failures caused by the Moon Jae-in administration over the past five years (such as rifts and trust fractures between South Korea and the U.S., and South Korea and Japan), and to newly establish a fundamental strategy on how to handle North Korea and China together with allied and partnership countries.

First, it is necessary to emphasize trust in South Korea’s increased role by prioritizing current and future security issues more than in the past, and by building a joint front with the U.S., Japan, and others at the level of a China strategy. When the new government takes office next year, the Biden administration is likely to propose a flexible operational approach for U.S. Forces Korea based on the global integration of U.S. military power from the perspective of the Korean Peninsula and regional strategy, instead of the Trump administration’s approach that linked defense cost-sharing negotiations with the reduction of U.S. troops in Korea. This flexible operation of U.S. Forces Korea could be linked to redeployment and rotational deployment, and may also shift from the current ground force-centric operation to adjustments involving special forces, naval, and air power. In this case, it is necessary to consider potential difficulties in establishing a South Korea-led combined defense system through the transfer of wartime operational control, and whether there is a need to adjust priorities for strengthening ground, naval, and air forces.

Second, there is a need to shift the strategic posture from ‘reactive response’ to China’s aggressive moves to ‘proactive response.’ This concerns how to operate military power as a means to support diplomatic efforts. Efforts must be made to secure the U.S. security commitment for the continued presence of U.S. Forces Korea as stably as possible, to prevent and check the potential threats arising from China’s political and military expansion, and at the same time to prepare various policy tools that minimize unnecessary confrontation and disputes with China. Only by securing strategic leverage to respond to China’s unilateral sanctions and pressure can China’s destructive behavior be effectively checked. For example, Australia’s bold formation of the AUKUS security cooperation with the U.S. and the U.K., and its pursuit of building nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) for the Australian Navy with U.S. and U.K. technological support, can be cited. South Korea should also strive to acquire such strategic leverage.

Third, through cooperation with allied countries and denuclearization diplomacy, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program advancement and provocative actions must be restrained. Recognizing the reality that North Korea possesses a large number of nuclear weapons while South Korea only has conventional weapons and relies on the South Korea-U.S. alliance to deter North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile threats, it is necessary to establish concrete plans on how much the defense budget can be increased annually to cope with future North Korean threats, and how to develop game-changers needed to counter various conventional military threats including North Korea’s nuclear and WMD threats. In this process, greater investment should be made in building military power that incorporates advanced scientific technologies related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution, including AI, especially in space, cyber, and unmanned systems forces.

In summary, as long as North Korea continues to enhance its nuclear and missile capabilities threatening South Korea and the U.S., and China accelerates the construction of advanced military power to strengthen regional hegemony, the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia will find it difficult to escape security uncertainties. Therefore, to successfully respond to threats from North Korea and China, it is necessary to strengthen military cooperation with allied countries including the U.S., the U.K., and Australia.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.