[Good Morning Stock Market] KOSPI Faces Ex-Dividend Date... Securities Firms Forecast 1% Decline

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[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jihwan] On the 29th, the domestic stock market is expected to fall by over 1% as it faces the ex-dividend date, when the opportunity to receive dividends disappears after the dividend record date. Generally, on the ex-dividend date, selling pressure increases as the right to dividends disappears. The securities industry estimated the KOSPI's cash dividend ex-dividend index at 2,978.21, which is 42.03 points (1.39%) lower than the closing price of 3,020.24 on the day before the ex-dividend date, the 28th. This means that even if the KOSPI falls by 42.03 points, it is not a real loss.

◆ Seo Sangyoung, Researcher at Mirae Asset Securities = Semiconductor-related stocks, which had risen due to the increase in semiconductor chip prices in the US stock market, declined. The fact that discussions about whether the current valuation of tech stocks, which had shown strength based on expectations of earnings improvement, are justified have come to the fore, leading to selling pressure and weakness, is a negative factor for the Korean stock market.

The Korea Exchange presented the index adjusted for cash dividend ex-dividend at 2,978.21 points, down 1.39%. Considering this, the Korean stock market is expected to start with a decline of around 1%. Afterwards, volatility is expected to increase as profit-taking and rebound buying due to optical illusions collide.

◆ Han Jiyoung, Researcher at Kiwoom Securities = Expectations for a year-end rally and early-year rally continue. As confirmed in the US stock market on the previous trading day, short-term price pressure is occurring on growth stocks or leading stocks.

In the domestic stock market, it is necessary to keep open the possibility of short-term profit-taking among semiconductor stocks that had a strong rise in December, as well as game, metaverse, and secondary battery-related stocks that showed a sharp rise on the previous trading day. Considering this, the domestic stock market today is expected to show a practically firm to slightly positive trend reflecting the ex-dividend effect.

Given that net buying with a dividend arbitrage nature has flowed in centered on financial investment over recent trading days, it is judged that net selling with an opposite position nature is likely to appear on the ex-dividend date today. On the other hand, since individual investors, who recorded a record net selling of 3 trillion won across both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets on the previous trading day due to avoidance of major shareholder requirements and profit-taking desires, may turn back to net buying, the domestic stock market is expected to be sensitive to changes in supply and demand.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.