Will the Yeo Real Estate Tax Cuts Capture the 'Seoul Vote'?

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, is announcing his science and technology policy pledges on the 22nd at the party headquarters in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] As the Democratic Party of Korea floods the market with real estate tax reduction policies such as temporary suspension of capital gains tax surcharges and easing of property taxes, the 'Seoul public sentiment' is shaking. Following the crushing defeat in the April 7 by-elections, the alienation of public sentiment has accelerated, and the political world is paying attention to the direction of Seoul public sentiment, which had turned unfavorable to the Democratic Party.

In the Seoul support rating from the KSOI survey released on the 20th (nationwide, 1,008 people aged 18 and over, surveyed on the 17th-18th, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), candidate Lee (41.2%) narrowly surpassed candidate Yoon (39%) within the margin of error. Trend-wise, in the six KSOI polls published from November 8 (Lee Jae-myung 27.8%, Yoon Seok-youl 47.3%) to December 13 (Lee Jae-myung 37.3%, Yoon Seok-youl 41.2%), Seoul voters had consistently preferred candidate Yoon, but this was reversed in the survey announced on the 20th.

Inside and outside the Democratic Party’s campaign committee, there is a strong perception that the votes in Seoul and the metropolitan area will effectively decide the outcome of this presidential election. For this reason, they have been releasing a series of real estate tax reduction policies aimed at swaying Seoul voters. If the recent Lee Jae-myung-style real estate tax reduction policies, such as temporary suspension of capital gains tax surcharges and easing of comprehensive real estate tax and property tax (holding tax), are implemented, a significant portion of the benefits will go to Seoul voters.

The National Tax Service’s announcement of the ‘2021 Comprehensive Real Estate Tax Notification Status by Province’ shows that the number of comprehensive real estate tax payers in Seoul totals 480,000, with tax revenue reaching 2.7766 trillion won. This accounts for 50.7% of the nationwide taxpayers and 48.9% of the nationwide tax amount. Compared to last year, the number of taxpayers increased by 22 percentage points, and the tax amount increased 2.3 times.

A campaign committee official said, "In past presidential elections, Seoul’s public sentiment has effectively decided the outcome, and it fluctuated until just before the election," adding, "Seoul is a place where the ‘Metaverse Bus’ could not even go due to quarantine issues, so we will focus on winning over Seoul voters’ support in the remaining period." Especially after losing 50% of the vote share in all 25 districts of Seoul in the April 7 by-elections to the People Power Party, the Democratic Party is under strong pressure to differentiate itself from the Moon administration on the ‘real estate issue,’ which is the most sensitive topic for Seoul public sentiment. For detailed information on the survey, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.