'Lee Fighting with the Ministry of Economy and Finance... Yoon Emphasizes Overwhelming Regime Change'... Revealing the True Intentions of the Presidential Election Strategy

President Moon in 5th Year of Term Achieves Highest Approval Ratings
Lee Attempts to Oppose Moon Jae-in's Policies Instead of Moon Jae-in Himself

Democratic Party Dominates National Assembly and Local Governments
Yoon Needs Cooperation and Political Reform Even After Winning Presidential Election

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] The ruling and opposition parties' strategies for next year's presidential election boil down to differentiation from the Moon Jae-in administration versus opposition to the Moon Jae-in administration. Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate focused on a differentiation strategy, is targeting the middle class, white-collar workers, and the Seoul metropolitan area, while Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate rallying anti-Moon forces, appears to be pursuing a strategy aimed at ‘overwhelming victory and post-election governance plans.’

◆ Lee, confrontation with the ‘bureaucratic organization’ rather than a highly rated president = After some confusion in forming their election committees, both parties have finally organized their teams and are accelerating the presidential race with 80 days remaining. Lee’s strategy notably involves leveraging the timing of the ‘regular National Assembly session,’ which deliberates on budgets and bills. He uses the National Assembly as a channel to present voices differentiated from the current government on issues ranging from real estate policies to COVID-19 support measures for small business owners. Accordingly, the Democratic Party is concretizing policies by supporting ‘Lee Jae-myung-style legislation.’

Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, is announcing policy pledges for small business owners and self-employed workers at the party headquarters in Yeouido, Seoul, on the 20th. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

The strategy of not just declaring differentiation from the current government but also pursuing actual legislation is underpinned by the recognition of President Moon’s high approval ratings. According to the polling agency Gallup, President Moon’s approval rating in the third quarter of his fifth year in office was 37%, the highest among presidents since the restoration of direct elections. In the same survey, former President Kim Young-sam recorded the lowest at 8%, and former President Kim Dae-jung the previous highest at 28%. The high approval rating of an incumbent president is both an asset and a limitation for the ruling party’s presidential candidate in expanding support.

For Lee, setting the relationship with President Moon is inevitably a challenge. Regarding this, Lee adopts a strategy of reversing policy directions considered major mistakes of the current administration without directly targeting President Moon, instead confronting bureaucratic organizations such as the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Through this strategy, Lee aims to rally supporters who turned away due to failures in real estate policy. His main targets are white-collar workers, the middle class, and voters in the Seoul metropolitan area.

◆ Yoon, considering ‘comprehensive regime change’ including local and general elections = Since entering politics, Yoon has emphasized overwhelming regime change. Strategists inside and outside the party, including Kim Jong-in, the People Power Party’s general election committee chairman, stressed a ‘slim’ organization for the election committee. However, despite internal adjustments, the actual committee was formed on a ‘mammoth’ scale. Moreover, Yoon also established candidate-direct organizations such as the New Era Preparation Committee.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The large-scale formation of the election committee despite internal concerns is explained by political circles as reflecting Yoon’s strong intentions. After entering politics, Yoon accelerated the recruitment of figures from Honam and former Democratic Party members who were not absorbed by the existing opposition, including the People Power Party. Recently, he also recruited Shin Ji-ye, a female progressive and former head of the Korean Women’s Political Network. In this regard, Yoon’s emphasis on overwhelming regime change carries significance beyond mere ‘political rhetoric.’

The view is that practical ‘regime change’ can only be realized by reversing the current situation where the Democratic Party controls the National Assembly and local governments. The prerequisite for this is an ‘overwhelming presidential election victory.’ This is because after the election, there will be a need to pursue a coalition cabinet or political realignment for governance. Professor Kim Hyung-jun of Myongji University predicted, “If Yoon wins the presidential election, he will have to form a joint government based on decentralization and cooperation, regardless of whether it involves moderate Democrats, the People’s Party, or the Justice Party.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.