[Initial Insight] The Next 10 Years of Kim Jong-un's Future

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho] On December 28, 2011, ten years ago, at the funeral of Kim Jong-il, Chairman of the National Defense Commission, held in Pyongyang, North Korea, amidst heavy snowfall, the third son Kim Jong-un escorted the hearse surrounded by seven of his father's closest aides. It was the moment that marked the beginning of the three-generation succession.

North Korea opened the era of the Kim family's three-generation hereditary monarchy, continuing from Kim Il-sung to Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un, ten years ago. Countries around the world predicted an uncertain future for North Korea. There were even early collapse theories. This was because Kim Jong-un, only 27 years old at the time, was expected to find it difficult to secure stable power over his father's aides and brothers.

Kim Jong-un answered this question with a reign of terror characterized by purges. Starting with Ri Yong-ho, then Chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army and a favorite of his father, his uncle Jang Song-thaek was executed. Subsequently, the "seven men of the hearse," who were the core of power, disappeared within about five years of Kim Jong-un's rule for various reasons.

The highlight of the reign of terror was the assassination of his eldest brother Kim Jong-nam. Kim Jong-nam, Kim Jong-un's half-brother and once considered a strong candidate for North Korea's successor, was unable to return to North Korea after his younger brother took power and was assassinated at a Malaysian airport in 2017. The exact perpetrators behind this incident have yet to be clearly identified.

Kim Jong-un's hidden card to consolidate his dictatorial power was, of course, nuclear weapons. Ignoring international warnings, he carried out four illegal nuclear tests and over 60 missile launches.

He personally inspected the test launches of major strategic weapons such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), showcasing that the completion of nuclear capabilities was a result of his leadership.

While he built a dictatorship through terror politics and nuclear weapons, the North Korean people grew even hungrier. There was once hope that the emergence of a young leader could overcome economic difficulties, but the results were otherwise.

The current economic hardship North Korea is experiencing is the worst since the regime's establishment in 1948. Although the impact of COVID-19 is a factor, the fundamental cause is attributed to his obsession with nuclear weapons and consolidating his power base.

According to the "Reference Materials on Kim Jong-un Regime's 10 Years" released by the Ministry of Unification on the 16th, the economic situation worsened during Kim Jong-un's 10 years in power. The annual economic growth rate showed slight positive growth until 2016 but shifted to negative growth from 2017 onward, falling to -4.5% last year.

Grain production, an indicator of food shortages, recorded 4.4 million tons last year, the lowest since Kim Jong-un took power, due to prolonged sanctions, border closures caused by COVID-19, and massive flood damage. This economic hardship was acknowledged by Kim Jong-un himself, who admitted that "(economic) goals were tremendously missed in all sectors."

Nevertheless, Kim Jong-un's power base remains solid. A 2019 report titled "Prospects for the Kim Jong-un Regime in 2050" by the National Assembly Futures Institute predicted a high likelihood that the current power structure would be maintained. This means that Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party who came to power through three-generation succession, is likely to maintain absolute power in some form.

This is undoubtedly bad news for the North Korean people. If the Kim Jong-un regime continues, it is obvious that the lives of North Korean citizens will become even more devastated.

Our government must not leave North Korea as it is. Since North Korean issues, including the nuclear problem, human rights, and economic hardship, are important variables in the Korean Peninsula situation, leaders ahead of next year's presidential election need to approach North Korean issues with sincerity and actively respond. Otherwise, in 2031, ten years from now, we will still be facing the two problems of North Korea's nuclear weapons and food shortages.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.