50 Years Later in South Korea, 'Life Expectancy 91 Years' Among Top OECD Countries... But Birth Rate Is the Lowest

[Sejong=Asia Economy Reporter Son Seonhee] In about 50 years, in 2070, the life expectancy of the South Korean population is expected to reach 91.2 years (men 89.5 years, women 92.8 years), ranking among the top in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries. Nevertheless, the birth rate is expected to remain at the lowest level, leading to a bleak outlook of a rapidly aging society.

According to the 'Future Population Projections (2020?2070)' recently released by Statistics Korea, under the basic scenario, the life expectancy of Koreans in 2070 is 91.2 years. This means that a child born in 2070 is expected to live up to 91.2 years. This is 7.7 years longer than the life expectancy of newborns in 2020 (83.5 years).

Between 2065 and 2070, the average life expectancy of Koreans is projected to be 90.9 years, the highest among the 38 OECD member countries. Following South Korea are Norway (90.2 years), Finland (89.4 years), Japan and Canada (89.3 years). The country with the shortest life expectancy is Ireland, at 82.0 years.

Life expectancy is a positive indicator as it reflects the health status of the population. However, considering that the proportion of the working-age population in South Korea is expected to decline sharply in 50 years and that the birth rate has remained at the lowest level for several years, negative effects are also expected to be significant. From a fiscal perspective, the reduction in the working population and the increase in the elderly population requiring welfare pose a burden.

In 2070, the proportion of the working-age population (15?64 years) in South Korea is projected to be 46.1%, the only OECD member country to fall into the 40% range. Conversely, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over is expected to be 46.4%, the highest among OECD member countries. The proportion of those aged 85 and over is also expected to reach 14.4% of the total population.

As the proportion of the working population decreases and the elderly population increases, the cost of support is also expected to rise. The total dependency ratio, which represents the number of dependents (youth and elderly) per 100 working-age people, is projected to be 116.8 in 2070, ranking first among OECD countries.

Statistics Korea forecasts that the total fertility rate in South Korea will be 1.21 between 2065 and 2070. Although this is an increase from the total fertility rate of 0.84 in 2020, it remains the lowest among OECD member countries. Statistics Korea expects the total fertility rate to drop to 0.70 in 2024 before rebounding to about 1.21 by 2070. If the fertility rate remains at the 2020 level (0.84), South Korea's population is estimated to shrink to 34.78 million in 2070 and 14.31 million in 2120.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.