One Year After the US Presidential Election... Trump Shakes the Living Power Biden [Correspondent Diary]

Shaky Biden...Trump Gaining Momentum

[Asia Economy New York=Correspondent Baek Jong-min] On the 21st, U.S. President Joe Biden visited his childhood hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania, to promote the necessity of his infrastructure investment plan.

Scranton is a declining industrial area. In the past, coal mined near the Great Lakes passed through here on its way to New York and Philadelphia. The National Steam Locomotive Museum located right next to the electric vehicle museum where President Biden gave his speech is famous as a place that shows traces of the train era at that time.

On the 12th, supporters of former President Trump are protesting in front of the Michigan State Capitol.
[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Although it is his hometown, many of President Biden's opponents reside here. The reporter visited this place two weeks before President Biden's visit, and large billboards supporting former President Donald Trump welcomed visitors.

According to the White House press corps, supporters of former President Donald Trump gathered in front of the site of Biden's speech and held a banner reading "Biden hole," a phrase criticizing President Biden, and protested. The political media RealClearPolitics also reported that those shouting "Damn Biden" greeted Biden.

As the one-year mark before President Biden's election approaches, interest in former President Trump is growing as Biden's approval rating declines.

The emergence of a social network (SNS) directly established by former President Trump is hardly a coincidence. It can be assumed that Trump announced it with a strategic intent.

Although former President Trump had less public exposure after being banned from SNS, the "Trump effect" was still alive. The phenomenon of the SPAC stock, which was to merge with Trump's SNS, soaring several times is evidence of the public's view of him.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Now, attention is focused on whether former President Trump will run in the 2024 presidential election. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie appeared on ABC on the 24th and said, "He is the only name. No one else is considered a presidential candidate in the Republican Party," predicting Trump's next presidential run.

Yu Hye-young, a U.S. political expert and professor at New York University, said, "No one excites Republicans as much as former President Trump," and predicted, "If President Biden does not run in the next election, former President Trump is likely to run and win."

Professor Yu added the premise that Biden would not run, but if Biden's approval rating continues to decline as it is now, the situation could change.

Those mentioned as potential candidates in both the Democratic and Republican parties are widely viewed as unlikely to emerge as presidential candidates due to their lack of nationwide recognition or influence. Professor Yu also diagnosed that it is difficult to find candidates better than President Biden or former President Trump in either party.

Public opinion polls also reflect this situation. The election-specialized media 538, operated by U.S. election analyst Nate Silver, reported that Republican supporters believe former President Trump should run in the next election.

Most polls indicate that the majority of Republican supporters hope for Trump's candidacy. In a Quinnipiac University poll, 86% of Republican voters expressed favorable views of former President Trump.

Negative sentiment toward Trump remains strong. In a HarrisX and The Hill poll, 53% of registered voters held negative views of Trump. In the Quinnipiac poll, negative evaluations of Trump exceeded the majority at 52%.

What is certain is that the momentum of both Biden and Trump is currently neck and neck. A survey by Grinnell College asking who people would support if the 2024 presidential election were held now showed that President Biden and former President Trump each received 40% support.

538, while stating that it is impossible to predict what will happen next, forecasted that no matter how much Trump's popularity declines, it cannot be said that Biden will win a landslide against him.

The midterm election, which can be seen as a midterm evaluation of President Biden, is one year away, and the presidential election is three years away. Midterm elections are often called the graveyard of incumbent presidents. If the House of Representatives shifts to Republican control through the midterms, President Biden's remaining two-year term could become largely ineffective.

The "Round 2" of the Biden and Trump showdown has already begun.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.