Scenario of Provocation After North Korea's SLBM Launch

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea has officially announced the successful launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from a submarine. However, based on the scale of North Korea's submarines, it is presumed to be a reduced-size SLBM rather than a conventional type. This is the so-called ‘mini SLBM’. The South Korean military states that it is still difficult to confirm whether North Korea launched it from a submarine or from a ‘barge’ floating on the water. If the submarine launch was indeed successful as North Korea claims, the next step could be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch.

On the 20th, the Korean Central News Agency reported, "The National Defense Science Institute of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea proudly and honorably reported to the Party Central Committee the successful launch of a new type of submarine-launched ballistic missile from the ‘8.24 Hero Ship’ (the name of the North Korean submarine)." If the launch was indeed from a submarine rather than from land or a barge, it means that a surprise attack using stealth capabilities has become possible.

However, to equip an SLBM on a submarine and deploy it in actual combat, at least three missiles need to be loaded, which requires a 3,000-ton class submarine. Currently, North Korea only possesses 2,000-ton or 1,800-ton class submarines, and the 8.24 Hero Ship is estimated to be an 1,800-ton class. It is speculated that North Korea may have reduced the size of the missile to load multiple missiles on a somewhat smaller submarine. This mini SLBM is estimated to have a diameter of about 1 meter, smaller than the SLBM Pukguksong-1 and -1.5 that North Korea currently possesses. North Korea showcased the mini SLBM at the weapons exhibition marking the 76th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea on the 11th, so it is interpreted that this missile launch test was conducted this time.

In particular, considering the altitude and range of the mini SLBM, it is possible that it was developed by modifying the KN-23, the ‘North Korean version of Iskander’, which is launched from the ground. If the KN-23 was modified, ‘low-altitude irregular maneuvering’ could also be possible, making detection and interception by the existing South Korea-US missile defense system difficult. Additionally, North Korea emphasized the ‘success five years ago’ in this announcement, which seems to be conscious of the 2016 submarine launch success. The South Korean government does not recognize North Korea’s submarine launch success case.

Meanwhile, the ‘Five-Year Plan for Defense Science Development and Weapon System Development’ announced by Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party, in January includes military reconnaissance satellites. Considering this, North Korea may attempt to launch an ICBM disguised as a satellite in the future. Since the South Korean government is also launching the Korean Launch Vehicle-II (KSLV-II) on the 21st, North Korea may try to gain international recognition as a satellite-owning country by launching an ICBM. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) prohibits North Korea from launching rockets using ballistic missile technology, including those carrying satellites. SLBMs are also included in the prohibited items.

If North Korea launches a satellite, it is expected to notify the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to ensure safe operation of aircraft shelves. North Korea was criticized by the international community for not following such prior notification procedures before launching the satellite ‘Kwangmyongsong-1’, known as ‘Taepodong-1’, in 1998.

Professor Kim Dong-yeop of the Graduate School of North Korean Studies said, "North Korea appears to be developing weapons according to a mid- to long-term five-year plan, and in this sense, it is highly likely that new weapons that have not been test-launched will be introduced one after another in the future."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.