"D-RAM Market, Supply Exceeds Demand... Prices Expected to Fall 15-20% Next Year"

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] In the representative memory semiconductor market of DRAM, a phenomenon where supply exceeds demand has occurred, leading to forecasts that prices will drop by an average of 15-20% next year.

On the 13th, Taiwanese market research firm TrendForce predicted in a recent report that DRAM prices will enter a full-fledged downward phase next year after turning to a declining trend in the fourth quarter. TrendForce anticipated that the inventory levels of DRAM customers are high, causing supply to surpass demand and resulting in an overall decrease in average prices.

(Source: TrendForce)

It was analyzed that the bit-level DRAM supply of the top three companies in the DRAM market?Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and US-based Micron?will increase by 17.9% next year, while demand will only grow by 16.3%. In particular, TrendForce predicted that Samsung Electronics, the industry leader, will increase DRAM supply by 19.6% next year, mainly centered on the Pyeongtaek Line 2, marking the largest supply increase among the three companies. TrendForce stated, "DRAM prices began to decline by 3-8% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of this year and are expected to maintain the downward trend until the first half of next year," adding, "The average selling price of DRAM is expected to decrease by 15-20% compared to this year."

However, despite the price decline, shipments are expected to increase at a similar level, so the overall DRAM market revenue is anticipated to remain similar to this year. TrendForce forecasted that DRAM suppliers will achieve strong performance this year with revenues exceeding $90 billion. TrendForce also noted, "Uncertainty remains regarding DRAM price fluctuations in the second half of next year, and if price management is well executed, prices could rebound."

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which posted strong results due to rising DRAM prices in the first half of this year, are closely monitoring the recent forecasts of DRAM price declines. Samsung Electronics' stock price fell below 70,000 won for the first time in 10 months yesterday, influenced by the semiconductor industry downturn outlook.

According to TrendForce, based on second-quarter sales this year, Samsung Electronics holds the largest share of the global DRAM market at 43.6%, SK Hynix is second with 27.9%, and Micron ranks third with 22.6%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.