Won, Liu, Yoon, Hong, People Power Party Primary 'Drama'... 'The Real Showdown Begins Now'

People Power Party Support Wanes Amid Yoon's Alleged Report Solicitation Scandal
General Public Opinion Strong for Hong, Recent Expansion Slows
Intense Competition in Party Sentiment and Polling Rule Battles Due to Sharp Increase

Yoon Seok-yeol (from left), Hong Joon-pyo, Yoo Seung-min, and Won Hee-ryong, candidates who passed the second preliminary round (cutoff) to select the People Power Party's presidential nominee. The People Power Party plans to select the final candidate on the 5th of next month after TV debates and other events. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] With the final confirmation of the main lineup for the People Power Party's presidential candidate primary, a month-long drama surrounding the ruling opposition party's presidential candidates is set to unfold. Attention is focused not only on the battle for first place between Representative Hong Jun-pyo and former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol, who had shown a two-strong structure, but also on whether a dramatic turnaround will occur between former Representative Yoo Seung-min and former Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong.

◆The highly anticipated showdown between Yoon and Hong = The People Power Party's presidential candidate election management committee announced the results of the second cut-off on the 8th without disclosing the rankings and vote percentages. However, considering various opinion polls, it is expected that former Prosecutor General Yoon and Representative Hong took first and second place respectively, former Representative Yoo came in third, and former Governor Won took fourth place. Since the question was who among the three?Yoon Seok-yeol, Hong Jun-pyo, and Yoo Seung-min?would barely make it into fourth place, the answer was confirmed to be former Governor Won. However, no answer was obtained regarding the bigger question of “who will pass the cut-off in first place.”

Former Prosecutor General Yoon received support from the People Power Party's base in various opinion polls, while Representative Hong showed strength among the general public. For example, in a poll conducted by four agencies?Embrain Public, K-Stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research?announced on the 7th (conducted from the 4th to 6th, telephone interviews, with a margin of error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level), Representative Hong led with 26% in suitability as the conservative camp's presidential candidate, ahead of Yoon's 21%. However, in polls limited to the People Power Party supporters, Yoon received 48%, higher than Hong's 36%. The People Power Party will finalize its presidential candidate by reflecting 50% party member votes and 50% opinion polls. Politically, attention is also drawn to the fact that Yoon's expansion, which peaked after his political debut, has stalled amid adverse factors such as allegations of “prosecution abuse,” while Hong's expansion has recently slowed.

◆Intensifying and emotionally charged verification = As the People Power Party primary narrows down to a four-way race, fierce competition and somewhat excessive emotional disputes among candidates are expected to escalate. Already, after the broadcast debate on the 5th, sharp exchanges have occurred, such as controversies over whether former Representative Yoo pointed fingers or former Prosecutor General Yoon rejected a handshake during their handshake. Yoo's camp launched an offensive, saying that Yoon's reliance on shamanism and superstition should be subject to verification. With a total of 10 presidential debates scheduled (7 regional tours and 3 one-on-one candidate debates), mutual verification and policy disputes among candidates are expected to intensify. Attention is also focused on the impact of former Governor Won, who was somewhat behind in opinion polls but passed the cut-off, on the other three candidates. For now, former Governor Won is analyzed to overlap with former Representative Yoo's support base, as he has represented reformist conservatives.

For the candidates, the upcoming persuasion battle over party sentiment is crucial. Especially since the People Power Party's membership nearly doubled after the party convention in June, the party sentiment landscape has been newly drawn. Accordingly, the existing party members symbolized by Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK) and those aged 60 and above, as well as the new party members symbolized by those in their 20s to 40s and the metropolitan area, have become variables in public opinion trends. In other words, the type of questions posed is drastically different from previous elections.

Opinion polls are also likely to become a wild card in the upcoming election process. A battle of wits over the design of poll questions and rules is expected. Last month, the People Power Party's election management committee decided not to introduce a reverse selection prevention clause for the final primary opinion poll but agreed to ask about “main election competitiveness.” However, the detailed question design remains undecided, which could significantly affect the candidates' gains and losses. Therefore, it is anticipated that the real battle over the rules is just beginning.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.