[Initial Moment] The Barely Connected Communication Line Must Become a 'Solid Stepping Stone'

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] The inter-Korean communication liaison line, a symbol of dialogue between the two Koreas, has been barely restored after more than two months. It has been only five days since Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, announced the restoration plan in his policy speech. Already, rosy expectations are overflowing everywhere regarding an inter-Korean summit, a declaration to formally end the war, and denuclearization talks, all triggered by the Beijing Winter Olympics. However, we must remember that North Korea has always acted unpredictably.

The atmosphere at the end of July, when the inter-Korean communication liaison line was first restored, was similar to now. Many positive forecasts suggested that denuclearization and a summit could happen at any moment. Yet, contrary to those expectations, North Korea cut off communication on August 10, just two weeks later, citing the joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises as the reason, entering a 'silence' mode. Although one might think the situation is different now since General Secretary Kim announced the restoration plan himself, the restoration at that time was also due to an agreement between the two leaders. North Korea is inherently 'unpredictable,' capable of overturning decisions made even at the highest leadership level at any time.

It is not entirely impossible to observe North Korea's actions. After restoring the communication line at the end of July, the North promptly demanded the suspension of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises, which they called "hostile war drills," through a statement by Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the Workers' Party, on August 1. However, the joint exercises, decided within the South Korea-U.S. alliance framework, could not be halted as easily as flipping a hand. The South Korea-U.S. authorities eventually conducted scaled-down joint exercises, but the North still found this unsatisfactory and cut off the communication line.

This time, the demands are similar but even more severe. They call for the withdrawal of hostile policies and double standards. Hostile policies encompass a broader concept including the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises and sanctions against the North, while the withdrawal of double standards means asking for their new weapons development to be understood not as 'provocation' but as 'strengthening national defense.' In other words, they want the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises and sanctions to stop and for their independent nuclear and missile development to be recognized, which is not a matter the South Korean government can respond to on its own.

First of all, the U.S. and the international community maintain a firm stance on sanctions against North Korea. While supporting inter-Korean dialogue, the U.S. repeatedly emphasizes to the North the importance of complying with United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions and existing UN sanctions. The UNSC convened an emergency meeting regarding North Korea's hypersonic missile launch. Although a statement was not adopted due to opposition from China and Russia, the international community's firm stance on North Korea's missile activities is evident. Although Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong hinted at the need for 'sanctions relief' in the National Assembly, the U.S. dismissed it, stating that "a unified message toward North Korea is important."

This means North Korea could again issue a statement under Kim Yo-jong's name, claiming that hostile policies and double standards have not been withdrawn, and switch back to 'silence' mode at any time. The South Korean government's choice to use the term 'regret' instead of 'provocation' regarding North Korea's missile launches, and President Moon Jae-in's conciliatory message at the World Korean Day ceremony on the 5th, saying "(South and North) have no reason to confront each other," appear to be efforts to soothe North Korea's sentiments for now.

Park Soo-hyun, Chief of Communication at the Blue House, described the path to a declaration to formally end the war as "a path of laying stepping stones." This means it must be pursued carefully through multiple stages, as even a 'political declaration' like the end-of-war declaration is by no means easy. Only by firmly establishing communication through the first stepping stone?the inter-Korean communication liaison line?can the next stepping stones be securely laid. We are still just stepping onto the first stepping stone.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.