WTO Raises Global Trade Volume Forecast from 8% to 10.8%

"Trade Recovery Becomes Clear as Vaccination Rates Increase"
Asia Shows the Highest Growth Rate in Both Exports and Imports

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The World Trade Organization (WTO) announced that it has revised upward its growth forecast for global merchandise trade volume this year from the previous 8% to 10.8%. This is attributed to the rapid recovery in export and import volumes as economies, led by advanced countries such as the United States and Europe, have begun to fully reopen with rising COVID-19 vaccination rates. However, concerns remain as countries in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia with relatively low vaccination rates are experiencing slower economic recovery, and there are still downside risks such as renewed lockdowns due to the spread of new virus variants.

On the 4th (local time), the WTO announced that it has raised its growth forecast for global merchandise trade volume this year to 10.8%, up from the 8.0% announced in March. Along with this, the forecast for global regional gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for this year was also revised upward from 5.1% in March to 5.3%. In the report released that day, the WTO stated, "From the second quarter of this year, vaccination rates have increased in various countries and economic reopening has accelerated, leading to a sharp 22% year-on-year growth in trade volume, driving the recovery." It added, "Although issues such as semiconductor supply shortages and other supply chain problems continue to pose challenges alongside COVID-19, they are not significantly impacting the current trade recovery."

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said at a press conference that day, "Trade is an important tool in combating COVID-19, and the strong recovery in trade volume growth demonstrates how trade supports the global economic recovery." She emphasized, "However, unequal vaccination rates across regions worldwide are widening economic disparities between regions, and if this vaccine inequality worsens, it increases the likelihood of more dangerous variants emerging, which could once again threaten the current economic recovery."

According to WTO data, the expected year-on-year export growth rate for this year is highest in Asia at 14.4%, followed by Europe (9.7%), North America (8.7%), Latin America (7.2%), Africa (7.0%), and the Middle East (5.0%). For imports, Asia (14.2%) is also expected to have the highest growth rate, followed by North America (11.9%), Latin America (10.8%), Europe (9.4%), Africa (8.2%), and the Middle East (5.4%).

The WTO added in the report, "Although the trade growth rate this year has increased significantly due to the base effect from the COVID-19 pandemic last year, it is expected to gradually slow down going forward," and "In 2022, the increase is expected to be only 4.7% compared to this year."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.