[Akyeong Poll] Yoon Seok-yeol and Hong Joon-pyo Lead Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon

Quantum Duel: Clear Lead Beyond Margin of Error
Yoon Seok-yeol and Lee Jae-myung Have the Largest Vote Gap
Hong Joon-pyo and Lee Nak-yeon Also Have a Large Vote Gap
Yoon Seok-yeol and Lee Nak-yeon Are Within the Margin of Error

People Power Party presidential candidate Hong Joon-pyo (left) and former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunju Lee] Among the four hypothetical head-to-head matchups comparing the four leading presidential candidates?ruling party’s Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon, and opposition party’s Yoon Seok-youl and Hong Joon-pyo?three showed results beyond the margin of error. People Power Party lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo held a clear lead beyond the margin of error in matchups against both Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung and former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon. Former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl also recorded a lead beyond the margin of error against Governor Lee. In the matchup against former leader Lee, Yoon had higher support but it was within the margin of error.

The largest support gap in the head-to-head matchups was between Yoon Seok-youl and Lee Jae-myung. Former Prosecutor General Yoon received 47.8%, while Governor Lee had 38.3%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. Compared to the previous survey (second week of September), both candidates’ support increased, but Yoon’s rose by 1.4 percentage points and Lee’s by 0.7 percentage points, widening the gap. By party support, 78.1% of Democratic Party supporters backed Governor Lee, while 84.5% of People Power Party supporters favored former Prosecutor General Yoon.

The next largest support gap was in the Hong Joon-pyo versus Lee Nak-yeon matchup, with Hong leading by 8.8 percentage points. Among Democratic Party supporters, 73.6% supported former leader Lee, while 78.3% of People Power Party supporters backed Hong. Following that was the Hong Joon-pyo versus Lee Jae-myung matchup, with a difference of 7.3 percentage points. Compared to the second week of September, Hong’s support rose by 0.5 percentage points, while Lee’s dropped by 0.9 percentage points. Among Democratic Party supporters, 74.4% supported Governor Lee, and 78.0% of People Power Party supporters chose Hong.

Democratic Party presidential candidates former leader Lee Nak-yeon and Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung
[Image source=Yonhap News]

The only close contest within the margin of error was between Yoon Seok-youl and Lee Nak-yeon. By party support, 80.5% of Democratic Party supporters favored former leader Lee, while 84.1% of People Power Party supporters preferred former Prosecutor General Yoon.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting, targeting nationwide voters aged 18 and over, on the 25th and 26th of the month, with 1,016 respondents and an overall response rate of 8.4%. The survey method was 100% mobile phone virtual number via wireless ARS. The sample was extracted using weighted values (cell weighting) by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.