"Chuseok Aftermath, Peak Not Yet Reached"... 3,000 Cases Expected Next Week

Metropolitan Area Outbreak Spreads to Non-Metropolitan Regions After Chuseok
Over 44% Fully Vaccinated but Breakthrough Infections Surge

On the 24th, when 2,434 new COVID-19 cases were confirmed, marking the highest number since the outbreak, citizens visiting the temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul Station Plaza are waiting to be tested. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Reporter Seo So-jeong] The record high of 2,434 new COVID-19 cases is attributed to the nationwide mass movement during the Chuseok holiday. However, as the aftereffects of the holiday are expected to intensify next week, there are predictions that the number of confirmed cases nationwide will exceed 3,000 due to a large-scale spread. Although the vaccination completion rate has surpassed 44%, concerns are growing as breakthrough infections continue to surge alongside the rapid transmission of the Delta variant.

2,434 Cases 'Record High'... Non-metropolitan Areas' Proportion Increasing Again

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH), as of midnight on the 24th, the number of confirmed cases reached 2,434, marking the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak that the figure has entered the 2,400 range. Among the locally transmitted cases, Seoul reported 903, Gyeonggi 704, and Incheon 140, totaling 1,747 cases in the metropolitan area, accounting for 72.3%. The metropolitan area's proportion has remained in the 70% range for consecutive days, indicating ongoing transmission. The proportion of cases in non-metropolitan areas, which had been declining, has recently shifted to an upward trend.

Over the week since the 18th, the daily average number of confirmed cases increased by 2.8% in the metropolitan area, whereas non-metropolitan areas saw a 13.3% rise. On this day, non-metropolitan cases numbered 669, accounting for 27.7% of all local cases. This marks a sharp increase in the proportion of non-metropolitan cases, which had once fallen below 20% during the fourth wave.

Experts predict that the number of confirmed cases will surpass 3,000 next week due to the high transmissibility of the Delta variant combined with the effects of the Chuseok holiday. Professor Eom Jung-sik of Gachon University College of Medicine's Department of Infectious Diseases stated, "There is a high possibility that the highest number of confirmed cases will occur from Monday to Wednesday next week when testing intensifies," adding, "The number of new confirmed cases is expected to exceed 3,000 significantly." Since the Delta variant is highly contagious even two days before symptom onset while asymptomatic, it is anticipated that cases showing symptoms and testing positive will surge after the holiday. It is highly likely that the metropolitan area's outbreak has already spread nationwide through meetings with family, relatives, and acquaintances in hometowns.

"Accelerate Second Dose Vaccinations and Shorten Vaccination Intervals"

There are also criticisms that the low vaccination completion rate is failing to prevent the spread of infection. According to the COVID-19 Vaccination Response Promotion Team, 375,869 people completed vaccination the previous day, bringing the total number of fully vaccinated individuals to 22,582,280. The vaccination rate for the second dose (fully vaccinated) relative to the population stands at 44%, still remaining in the 40% range. Professor Jeong Ki-seok of Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital (former head of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency) emphasized, "Now, the focus must be on increasing the vaccination completion rate."

According to the CDCH, among 20,895 confirmed cases aged 18 and over from the 29th of last month to the 11th of this month, 89.8% occurred in the unvaccinated group or those partially vaccinated with only one dose. Among the fully vaccinated group, confirmed cases accounted for 10.2%, or 2,140 people. The CDCH analyzed that the fatality rate, which would have been 2.61% without vaccination, dropped to 0.60% after full vaccination, indicating a 77.0% effectiveness in preventing severe cases. Increasing the vaccination completion rate can reduce confirmed cases and lower the severity rate upon infection. Professor Jeong argued, "Since vaccine supply is secured, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine intervals, which were extended to six weeks, should be mandatorily shortened to 3-4 weeks, and vaccinations should be completed rapidly for the public."

With breakthrough infections increasing recently, the need for booster shots (additional vaccinations) is also growing. The previous day, 47 COVID-19 cases were confirmed in a cluster at Soonchunhyang University Seoul Hospital in Yongsan-gu, Seoul. Among the medical staff and employees, most were breakthrough infection cases confirmed after completing vaccination.

Professor Eom stated, "The proportion of confirmed cases with unknown infection routes, where it is unclear when and where they were infected, has approached 40% over the past four weeks, reducing the effectiveness of epidemiological investigations," adding, "In a situation where it is difficult to reverse the decline in confirmed cases, the 'With Corona' policy should be implemented aiming to minimize severe cases and deaths, while addressing shortcomings in quarantine measures."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.