[Global Focus] Scholz Resembling Merkel, Leading Germany's Regime Change After 16 Years?

Distrust Grows Over Laschet's Reckless Actions... CDU/CSU Faces Worst-Ever Vote Crisis
Calm and Steady Scholz, Experienced in Governance... Key to Majority Coalition Is Party Outreach
Top Election Issue Is 'Climate Change'... Green Party's Baerbock Faces Repeated Controversies Despite Brief Lead

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] ‘Jamaica? Kenya? Or Mickey Mouse?’

This was the headline used by the U.S. political media outlet Politico on the 3rd (local time) when reporting on the German general election.

Since the establishment of the Federal Republic in 1949, German voters have never allowed any single party to secure a majority of votes in the general elections. Governments have always been formed through coalitions of two to three parties, and various coalition governments have been expressed through the unique colors of the parties.

The three colors of the Jamaican flag?black, yellow, and green?represent the center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union alliance (CDU/CSU alliance), the Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Green Party emphasizing environmental issues, respectively. The Kenya coalition refers to a coalition where the Social Democratic Party (SPD), symbolized by red, joins instead of the FDP, which is symbolized by yellow in the Jamaica coalition. Mickey Mouse refers to a coalition composed of the CDU/CSU alliance, SPD, and FDP, inspired by Mickey Mouse’s red pants and yellow shoes.

As the German general election unfolds in a tight race without any party showing overwhelming support, the prospects for the next coalition government are becoming complicated. The earlier Politico headline metaphorically compared the current unpredictable situation of the German election results to national flags.

SPD First Party in Parliament for the First Time in 20 Years?

According to a poll released on the 12th by the German weekly Bild am Sonntag, the SPD maintained its lead with a 1 percentage point increase from the previous week to 26%. The CDU/CSU alliance’s support remained at 20%. The gap between the SPD and CDU/CSU alliance widened to 6 percentage points. The Green Party’s support dropped by 1 percentage point to 15%. The FDP’s support remained steady at 13%, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the anti-capitalist Left Party each fell by 1 percentage point to 11% and 6%, respectively.

About two weeks before the 2017 general election, the CDU/CSU alliance held a solid lead with 35-36%, and the SPD was second with about 22-23%. Other parties had support levels around 8-10%. At that time, the CDU/CSU alliance maintained first place from start to finish, but in this election, the Green Party briefly took first place early on, followed by the CDU/CSU alliance holding a precarious lead for a long time before the SPD surged ahead.

Armin Laschet, the CDU/CSU alliance’s candidate to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel, who governed for 16 years, is unpopular. He ranks third in chancellor candidate support behind SPD’s Olaf Scholz and the Green Party’s Annalena Baerbock. Due to Laschet’s unpopularity, the CDU/CSU alliance’s vote share is likely to record its worst ever. Meanwhile, although the Green Party’s early momentum has waned, it expects its highest vote share ever. The SPD aims to become the largest party in parliament for the first time since the 2002 general election.

The Main Issue of the Election: Climate Change

The biggest issue in the election is climate change. According to a poll released by public broadcaster ARD on the 3rd, voters identified environmental and climate change measures (33%) as the most urgent issue for the next government to address. This was followed by immigration issues (22%) and COVID-19 (18%). In the 2017 general election, immigration issues (47%) ranked first, followed by environmental and climate change measures (9%).

As climate change emerged as a key issue, the Green Party, which advocates environmentalism, surged to first place in party support early in the campaign. The young female chancellor candidate born in 1980, Baerbock, also briefly led the chancellor candidate polls with her fresh appeal. However, voters are concerned that enthusiasm may be outpacing substance.

At a campaign rally on the 11th, Baerbock mentioned the climate crisis and expressed a desire for all citizens to be able to purchase electric vehicles within 10 years if possible. She emphasized that support payments for low-income groups could be increased up to 9,000 euros (about 12.47 million KRW) if necessary. One voter told the Associated Press, "They are not sufficiently explaining how they will secure the funding."

One reason Chancellor Merkel was able to govern for a long time was that despite successive global economic crises since 2008, the government maintained fiscal stability.

Baerbock has also faced controversies, including failure to report bonus income to parliament and allegations of plagiarism in her book.

Reckless Laschet, Stable Scholz

In July, the worst floods in northern Germany caused 180 deaths in Rhineland-Palatinate, North Rhine-Westphalia, and Bavaria. Climate change became an even more prominent issue.

Armin Laschet, the CDU/CSU alliance candidate, disappointed voters with reckless behavior during a visit to the flood-affected areas. He was photographed by press photographers chatting and smirking during President Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s condolence speech, sparking controversy. Despite multiple apologies, voters find it difficult to trust him as Merkel’s successor. The controversy intensified because Laschet is the incumbent governor of North Rhine-Westphalia, one of the flood-affected states.

Armin Laschet, the German CDU/CSU chancellor candidate, was seen smiling during President Frank-Walter Steinmeier's condolence remarks at the flood damage site in Erftstadt, North Rhine-Westphalia, on July 17. After the photo was released, criticism against candidate Laschet poured in.

On the other hand, SPD’s Scholz, the current finance minister, is regarded as stable and composed, resembling Chancellor Merkel. Scholz earned public trust by responding appropriately as finance minister during the COVID-19 crisis. Having also served as labor minister in the past, he is considered to have more government experience than the other two candidates.

Scholz has expressed a desire to form a coalition with the Green Party. The SPD and Green Party previously formed a coalition from 1998 to 2005 before Merkel’s tenure. They share consensus on issues such as a 12-euro hourly minimum wage and expansion of renewable energy. However, the combined support of the two parties is only about 40%, so to form a majority coalition, they need to bring in one or two additional parties.

From the SPD’s perspective, the best scenario might be to launch a left-leaning red-red-green coalition by adding the Left Party to the SPD and Greens. However, it is uncertain whether the Left Party will surpass the 5% threshold required to enter parliament, and even if it does, a majority for the red-red-green coalition is not guaranteed.

Ultimately, it is highly likely that right-leaning parties will also be included in the coalition. The Kenya coalition, composed of the SPD, CDU/CSU alliance, and Green Party, is also possible. Even if the CDU/CSU alliance becomes the largest party in parliament, it is expected that the left and right will have to join forces to form a majority coalition.

In the 2017 general election, coalition negotiations were protracted, and it took a full five months for the new government to be formed. This election is also expected to require considerable time to form a coalition government.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.