Can China, Partnered with the Taliban, Succeed in Afghanistan Development Plans?

Expert: "China's Expansion of Influence in Afghanistan Unlikely"
Security Risks Increase Due to Muslim Insurgents in Xinjiang Region
Western Sanctions and Weak Infrastructure Hinder Resource Development

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Suhwan] As the U.S. military completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Islamic militant group Taliban swiftly took control of the Afghan government, China has promptly expressed its intention to recognize the Taliban government.

This move comes amid Western countries not recognizing the Taliban government as the official government of Afghanistan, leading to analyses that China’s quick outreach to the Taliban government indicates an intention to expand its political and economic influence in Afghanistan.

Wang Wenbin, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told reporters on the 8th (local time), "(With the U.S. withdrawal) the three weeks of turmoil in Afghanistan have been resolved," adding, "This is an important step in restoring domestic order in Afghanistan and in post-war reconstruction," praising the Taliban government.

However, despite these efforts by the Chinese government to expand its influence, experts continue to point out that achieving tangible results will be difficult.

The background to this analysis lies primarily in China’s high sensitivity to security issues. In particular, China has reacted extremely sensitively to Islamic extremism, which has been spreading since the 2010s, including groups like ISIS.

Ekta Raghuwanshi, a South Asia regional analyst at RANE, said, "China is very interested in Afghanistan’s natural resources," but added, "However, since the Xinjiang region, home to Muslim ethnic groups within China, borders Afghanistan, security concerns arise. Therefore, China will find it difficult to hastily invest in Afghanistan."

This is interpreted as the possibility that the Uyghur Muslim population in Xinjiang could ally with the Afghan Taliban government, potentially escalating insurgent activities within China.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Although the Chinese government has officially recognized the Taliban government, there are also views that this will not immediately lead to economic cooperation with the Taliban side.

Maximilian Hess, a fellow at the U.S.-based think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), said, "There is still no evidence that China will become a partner of the Taliban," adding, "Recently, terrorist activities by Islamic militant groups targeting Chinese infrastructure facilities in Pakistan have increased. China is fully aware of these security risks."

On the contrary, some evaluations suggest that the U.S. military’s presence in Afghanistan helped manage security risks in the region, effectively providing a security shield for China.

Indian journalist Srimoy Talukdar wrote in a local media op-ed, "China has benefited from the stability in Afghanistan’s political situation due to the U.S. military presence."

Additionally, there is analysis that Western sanctions against the Taliban government will pose obstacles to economic cooperation between China and the Taliban.

Jonathan Wood, a researcher at the UK-based think tank Control Risks, said, "All agreements with the Taliban carry political and economic risks."

Hess predicted, "While Western sanctions remain in place, only a very small number of financial institutions in China will be able to pursue cooperation with the Taliban."

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Furthermore, the fragile infrastructure within Afghanistan is seen as a factor that makes resource development in the region more difficult, suggesting that China will find it challenging to develop Afghan resources as originally intended.

Researcher Wood pointed out, "The fragile social infrastructure in Afghanistan makes resource development even more difficult."

Samuel Ramani, professor of international relations at Oxford University, emphasized, "China’s involvement in Afghanistan is likely to follow a similar trajectory to the previously failed Syrian reconstruction plans," adding, "Various predictions will emerge, but none are certain at this point."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.