[Politics, That Day...] The '104-Vote Butterfly Effect' That Decided the Outcome of the Gwangju Primary

2002 Democratic Party Gwangju Primary: Roh Moo-hyun 595 Votes, Lee In-je 491 Votes
Political Symbolism Behind Choosing Gwangju, the Democratic Party's Stronghold

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, That Day...’ is a series that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures that deserve attention.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

If you were to pick one decisive moment that runs through the history of South Korean presidential elections, the ‘Gwangju’s Choice’ on March 16, 2002, cannot be overlooked. It was an event that shook the flow of the 2002 presidential election and a choice that changed the soil of Korean politics.

On that day, the Saecheonyeon Minjudang (New Millennium Democratic Party) held its regional primary in Gwangju. To analyze Gwangju’s choice, it is necessary to look at the political situation at the time. The figure who led the prevailing theory in the 2002 presidential election was politician Lee In-je. Born in Nonsan, Chungnam, he had considerable support not only in Chungcheong but also in Honam.

At that time, regionalism was not a variable but a constant in presidential elections. The political engineering judgment behind Lee In-je’s prevailing theory was that if influence expanded to Chungcheong in addition to Honam, the chances of winning the presidential election would increase.

Democratic Party Honam lawmakers were more interested in candidate Lee In-je, who emphasized stability, than candidate Roh Moo-hyun, who had a clear reformist stance. In the Democratic Party presidential primary at the time, candidates Han Hwa-gap, based in Gwangju and Jeonnam, and Jeong Dong-young, a rising star from Jeonbuk, also ran.

Three candidates with an organized base in Honam (Lee In-je, Han Hwa-gap, Jeong Dong-young) were awaiting the primary on March 16, 2002. At that time, there was still a considerable perception that “we should support people from our region.” In fact, candidates who ran in the 2002 Democratic Party presidential primary showed strong performances in their political hometowns.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The choice of Gwangju citizens was a matter of interest in political circles. Along with Lee In-je, the protagonist of the prevailing theory, Han Hwa-gap, the dominant figure in Gwangju and Jeonnam, and Jeong Dong-young, who was spotlighted as the future of Honam politics, the votes for Roh Moo-hyun, who had Busan as his political background, were also a focus.

Before opening the ballot boxes, there were many predictions that candidate Lee In-je would come in first. On the other hand, there was also speculation that candidate Roh Moo-hyun, the protagonist of the primary storm, could cause an upset. The counting results surprised everyone.

When it was announced that candidate Roh Moo-hyun received 595 votes in the Gwangju primary, the venue was engulfed in cheers. Candidate Lee In-je showed a formidable presence but only received 491 votes. The first place in Gwangju was taken by candidate Roh Moo-hyun. Candidate Han Hwa-gap received 280 votes, Kim Jung-kwon 148 votes, and Jeong Dong-young remained at 54 votes.

When Gwangju chose a Yeongnam candidate instead of candidates with an organized base in Honam, the presidential election landscape itself changed. The 104-vote difference victory laid the foundation that made politician Roh Moo-hyun the main figure in the 2002 presidential race.

The butterfly effect of 104 votes also influenced the soil of Korean politics. Until the 1990s, Korean politics was centered around bosses. Political giants represented by the so-called ‘Three Kims’?Kim Dae-jung, Kim Young-sam, and Kim Jong-pil?commanded huge factions based on regional bases.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Politicians only paid attention to voters during elections. Usually, they cared more about the thoughts of political bosses than those of voters. Political moves were decided according to the judgment of political bosses. The choice of Gwangju on March 16, 2002, was an unexpected result in that sense.

It was a strong warning to politicians who were obsessed only with political engineering at the time.

After the Gwangju primary, the ‘reverse prevailing theory’ led by politician Roh Moo-hyun gained momentum. Regarding the Gwangju primary results, candidate Roh Moo-hyun said, “Today, you expressed a strong desire to overcome regionalism and achieve East-West harmony.”

Nearly 20 years have passed since then, and Gwangju is once again at a crossroads. The political issues and candidates are different from those in 2002. Compared to 2002, regionalism has eased considerably. However, the political symbolism of the Gwangju primary is not much different from 20 years ago.

Democratic Party candidate Lee Nak-yeon, a former governor of Jeonnam, held a press conference in Gwangju on the 8th and made a bold move by announcing his resignation from the National Assembly. How will Gwangju respond to this choice? Will it shake up the Democratic Party presidential primary by supporting candidate Lee Nak-yeon?

Or will it make a decision that further strengthens candidate Lee Jae-myung’s prevailing theory, which was confirmed in Chungcheong? The Gwangju-Jeonnam primary is scheduled to be held on the 25th, after the Chuseok holiday. Depending on the mood in Honam’s ‘Chuseok Sarangbang,’ the primary landscape on the 25th is expected to change.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.