Lee Jae-myung Racing Toward Majority, Lee Nak-yeon Chasing... Start of the Primary Race

September 12 First Super Week Turning Point
Lee Jae-myung Surpasses Majority Among Democratic Party Supporters in Polls

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] The 40-day primary voting race to select the Democratic Party's presidential candidate has begun. The key point to watch is whether Lee Jae-myung, the Governor of Gyeonggi Province who is maintaining first place in the polls, can secure a majority of the votes. Former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon’s pursuit has not produced noticeable results, but the question is whether he can gain momentum by showing potential in the Chungcheong region, where the vote count starts first. The first Super Week, when the voting results of about 700,000 national and general party members will be announced on the 12th of next month, is expected to be a turning point.

According to the Democratic Party on the 31st, online voting will begin from this day ahead of the on-site voting in Daejeon and Chungnam scheduled for the 4th of next month. The Democratic Party primary electorate consists of delegates, party members with voting rights, and national/general party members who have applied. The Democratic Party has received applications for the electorate twice, exceeding 1.85 million people, of which about 700,000 are delegates and party members with voting rights who are automatically counted. It is expected that the total will exceed 2 million after the third recruitment.

Two days of online and ARS (Automated Response System) voting will be conducted respectively before the on-site voting day, and the results will be combined with the on-site votes for each region. However, the voting results of national/general party members will be announced separately on September 12 (Gangwon), October 3 (Incheon), and October 10 (Seoul), regardless of their affiliated region.

Looking at recent various poll results, when only Democratic Party candidates are asked, the gap between Governor Lee and former leader Lee narrows to within 10 percentage points in some cases. However, when all major candidates from both ruling and opposition parties are included, the two-way race between Lee and former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl becomes clear. This is because those who do not support the Democratic Party tend to choose former leader Lee when only Democratic candidates are presented. It can be seen as a kind of strategic 'reverse voting' by those hoping for a regime change.

The Democratic Party primary mainly targets party members and supporting citizens, so the opinions of Democratic Party supporters among poll respondents are important. From this perspective, recent polls generally show Governor Lee slightly exceeding 50%. This is the background for the confidence within Lee Jae-myung’s camp in securing a majority of votes.

From the perspective of Lee Nak-yeon’s camp, finding any clue to narrow the gap with Governor Lee is urgent. The recent intensification of attacks on Lee Jae-myung’s past free legal defense is in this context, but the visible effect seems minimal. Lee Taek-soo, CEO of Realmeter, analyzed on a radio broadcast that day, "There has been a tendency that when Yoon Seok-youl’s support rate drops, Lee Nak-yeon’s support rate rises, and this was confirmed again this week," adding, "The controversy over free legal defense does not seem to have a significant impact." He further noted, "Although Yoon’s support rate has dropped somewhat, there is still a perception of a two-way race between Yoon and Lee Jae-myung."

On the same day, former leader Lee pledged to "open a genuine 'Democratic Party government'" and promised to establish a Democratic Party National Vision Committee, institutionalize party-government consultations, and introduce a political vice-minister system. This aims to shift the central axis of national governance from the executive branch to the party, seemingly to appeal to party members and supporters.

The first hurdle is the Chungcheong regional primary. Neither Governor Lee nor former leader Lee has direct ties to this region. Depending on the gap between the two candidates, it will be possible to gauge which way the wind will blow in the first Super Week and beyond.

A poll conducted by Daejeon Ilbo through Jowon C&I on the 21st-22nd (with a 96% confidence level and a margin of error of ±3.4% in Daejeon, and a 95% confidence level with a margin of error of ±3.5% in Sejong and Chungnam; for details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website) showed a close race within the margin of error in Daejeon, with Governor Lee at 26.4% and former leader Lee at 22.9%. However, when limited to Democratic Party supporters, the gap widens with Lee at 45.8% and Lee Nak-yeon at 35.2%. In Sejong and Chungnam, Governor Lee led with 33.8% and 30.8%, respectively, ahead of former leader Lee’s 22% and 19.4%, outside the margin of error.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.