"Flying to Work by 2030"… Urban Air Mobility Takes Off [Reading Science]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] One day in 2030, Mr. A, who frequently travels abroad for business, headed to Incheon Airport 4 to 5 hours before his flight. However, due to a large-scale protest causing severe traffic congestion in the city, he was at risk of missing his flight. Remembering the recently launched 'Air Taxi' service, Mr. A immediately called an air taxi through the app and arrived at the Incheon Airport terminal within 30 minutes, allowing him to keep his scheduled business trip.

Modern cities are becoming increasingly large, and road traffic congestion is worsening. The scale of time and resource waste due to traffic jams is astronomical, and environmental pollution is also a serious issue. Accordingly, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) development is being actively promoted worldwide. This means that, like Mr. A, 2- to 5-seater aircraft equipped with unmanned piloting and vertical takeoff and landing technologies will be introduced to travel between city centers or between city centers and airports, which currently take 1 to 2 hours due to heavy road congestion, within 20 to 30 minutes. What challenges must be overcome for UAM to be commercialized like a 'taxi' on routes such as Seoul-Incheon Airport?

◇ Market Size of $1.5 Trillion by 2040

Worsening urban traffic congestion is creating a thirst for new transportation modes due to economic losses from wasted time and environmental problems like air pollution. According to the Korea Transport Institute, as of 2016, the domestic traffic congestion cost (including weekends) was 46.8 trillion KRW, accounting for 2.85% of the country's GDP. Especially in the Seoul metropolitan area, weekday (excluding weekends) traffic congestion costs amounted to 24.9 trillion KRW, representing 74.2% of the nationwide total (33.6 trillion KRW). This trend is similar worldwide. The U.S. traffic analytics company INRIX reported in 2018 that Americans waste about $1,348 and approximately 97 hours annually on roads due to congestion. Despite the establishment of bus-only lanes, subways, traffic signal systems, and various public transportation systems, traffic congestion in large cities remains severe, increasing the need for innovative transportation solutions.

In this context, UAM has attracted attention as a new mode of transportation. Equipped with powerful electric batteries and ICT technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), UAM enables unmanned, autonomous, and eco-friendly travel. Its vertical takeoff and landing capability allows people and goods to be loaded and unloaded anywhere at any time. UAM can cover distances of 50 to 100 km within and around cities in 20 to 30 minutes, making it an innovative transportation service expected to solve traffic congestion problems.

Last year, global investment bank Morgan Stanley projected that the UAM market size would reach $1.5 trillion by around 2040. This includes personal air vehicle (PAV) manufacturing, operation, infrastructure construction, and cargo transport services. They also forecast that by around 2050, UAM passengers will reach 450 million, indicating widespread popularization.

◇ Domestic UAM, OPPAV on the Rise

In South Korea, the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) has been developing domestic UAM technology based on its unmanned aerial vehicle research. This technology is called ‘OPPAV’ (Optionally Piloted Personal Air Vehicle). The government announced the ‘K-UAM Project’ in April 2019 centered on this technology. The ambitious plan aims to dramatically elevate Korea’s UAM technology and readiness, currently ranked around 4th or 5th globally, to a leading position. KARI is developing the core UAM aircraft, an electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicle (eVTOL).

With a total project budget of 44.8 billion KRW, the goal is to produce a 1-seater eVTOL prototype equipped with a distributed electric propulsion system and automatic flight system by the end of next year. Based on this, they plan to conduct full-scale technology verification, commercialization, and development of operation and control systems. The prototype will have a maximum takeoff weight of 650 kg, a wingspan of 7 meters, a range of 50 km, an altitude of about 1 km, and a top speed of around 200 km/h. It is designed to be scalable to a 5-seater, which can fly up to 120 km, meeting urban air traffic demand.

Globally, UAMs under development are categorized into low-speed multicopter types (drone types) and high-speed types (tilt-rotor and hybrid types). KARI’s prototype is a hybrid type that operates by folding and unfolding 4 of its 8 propellers, with development expected to complete by the end of next year. After successfully conducting the initial flight of a 44% scaled-down model in November last year, KARI has been verifying basic performance through monthly test flights. The goal is commercialization by 2030.

Hyundai Motor Company is also developing a 5-seater ‘S-A1’ with an operational range of 100 km and a speed of 290 km/h, planning to commercialize an 8-seater by 2028. Hyundai is participating in the construction of ‘Air One,’ a UAM-dedicated airport, in collaboration with the UK company Urban Airport. Hanwha Systems has also invested in the overseas company OverAir to enter the UAM development field. OverAir’s ‘Butterfly,’ powered 100% electrically, reportedly uses four large rotors to travel the Seoul-Incheon Airport route in 20 minutes at a speed of 320 km/h.

◇ Can UAM Fly Safely in Cities?

Many people view UAM with apprehension. If an object flying in a complex urban environment crashes or collides, it could lead to a disaster far beyond a typical car accident. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) mandates that the fatal failure rate for commercial transport aircraft must be less than one per billion flight hours. UAM uses electric propulsion instead of fossil fuels for safety reasons, but this has not yet been verified in commercial transport. Therefore, UAM developers are focusing heavily on ensuring safety. KARI’s eVTOL uses a distributed electric propulsion (DEP) system with eight propellers. This system generates both lift and thrust, enhancing safety and design flexibility.

However, to prepare for possible accidents, system redundancy must be applied, a sturdy airframe capable of withstanding crashes must be built, and reserve flight time must be secured. These requirements inevitably increase the aircraft’s weight, posing challenges for developers. Securing autonomous and automatic flight technology is also a major issue. Under current flight regulations, unmanned aircraft cannot carry passengers due to safety concerns. KARI plans to develop and apply technologies such as automatic takeoff and landing and automatic flight with destination input, meeting SAE Level 2 or higher standards. Preparation for unexpected weather conditions such as gusts, turbulence, heavy rain, and lightning in urban building canyons is also necessary. Overcoming sudden weather requires powerful motor engines and excellent flight control technology. Since UAM operates in cities, low-noise motors are essential. KARI targets 65 dB, about half the noise level of a helicopter (110 dB) during takeoff. Establishing safe and efficient control and operation systems is also critical.

Hwang Chang-jeon, head of KARI’s Personal Air Vehicle Business Unit, said, “Advanced countries began technology development around 2010 and are expected to introduce commercial services between 2024 and 2030. Although Korea started somewhat late, based on the unmanned vehicle technologies developed so far, the government, public research institutes, and private companies are making an all-out effort, so we expect to catch up soon.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.