[Global Focus] Middle East Shaken by Taliban's Return to Power... US, China, and Russia All on Edge

Amid US Accountability Disputes, China and Russia Face Security Threats
EU Also Fears Repetition of 2015 'Refugee Crisis'

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As the Afghan armed rebel group Taliban rapidly topples the Afghan government and occupies the capital Kabul, neighboring countries as well as major powers are closely monitoring the future situation in Afghanistan. With the reestablishment of the Islamic fundamentalist faction Taliban, it is expected that not only Afghanistan but the entire Central Asian geopolitical landscape will be significantly shaken, accelerating the realignment of power among regional major powers.

According to foreign media including the AP on the 16th (local time), the Taliban occupied Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, the day before, and the Afghan government officially declared surrender to the Taliban. It is reported that Ashraf Ghani, the head of government, fled abroad. Taliban spokesperson Mohammad Naeem emphasized in an interview with Al Jazeera, "The war is over, and the Taliban want peaceful international relations," adding, "The outline of the new Afghan government will soon be revealed."

Thus, the Taliban, having started attacks on major Afghan cities on the 6th, occupied Kabul within just 10 days, regaining power as the ruling force in Afghanistan after 20 years. The rapid takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban has greatly alarmed major powers such as the United States, China, and Russia, which have influenced Afghan affairs.

◇ US Blame Game Begins, "Steroid-Injected Saigon"

Both the U.S. political circles and major media outlets are rushing to criticize the fall of Kabul as a huge "shame" for the United States. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) harshly condemned the fall of Kabul, likening it to the fall of South Vietnam in 1975, calling it a "steroid-injected Saigon." With two weeks remaining before the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan, the fall of Kabul, which was under U.S. military defense, is criticized as a misjudgment by the Biden administration.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also acknowledged responsibility for the misjudgment in an interview with CNN the day before, saying, "We knew the Afghan government forces were insufficient to defend the country, but it happened faster than we expected."

In U.S. political circles, concerns are rising that with Afghanistan completely falling into the hands of the Taliban before peace negotiations were finalized, not only will the transfer of power be difficult, but establishing relations with the new Afghan government will also become challenging. The New York Times (NYT), citing a senior U.S. government official, pointed out, "With Afghan President Ghani fleeing without any plan for power transfer, the U.S. has lost both the motive and opportunity to intervene in negotiations with the Taliban."

◇ China and Russia Face National Security Threats

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

China is known to be the country most sensitively reacting to the Taliban's reestablishment of power in Afghanistan. The Taliban's return to power, an Islamic fundamentalist organization, is highly likely to encourage the activities of Islamic armed groups within the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. In Xinjiang, Islamic fundamentalist armed groups such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) are active, and they are believed to have received support from the Taliban, which shares a border.

The Chinese government has, for now, acknowledged and welcomed the Taliban's return to power. Hua Chunying, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated at a regular briefing on the 16th, "We respect the aspirations and choices of the Afghan people regarding the significant changes in the Afghan situation," emphasizing, "We note the Taliban's declaration that the war is over and that they will engage in dialogue to form an open and inclusive Islamic government and ensure the safety of foreign delegations in Afghanistan."

However, since the bus bombing in Pakistan on the 14th of last month, which killed nine Chinese nationals and is suspected to have been orchestrated by the Taliban, the Chinese government remains on high alert. According to AFP, the bus bombing occurred in Pakistan, where since 2016, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (land and maritime Silk Road), has been underway.

As a result, clashes between Chinese workers and locals have increased, leading to a rise in terrorist attacks targeting Chinese nationals. In Pakistan, a vehicle bombing targeting the Chinese ambassador also occurred in April. The Chinese government is reportedly concerned that the Taliban's return to power could trigger uprisings by Islamic fundamentalist armed groups in Pakistan and Central Asia, potentially causing major disruptions to the entire Belt and Road Initiative.

Russia is also worried that the Taliban's rule will affect the security of former Soviet Central Asian countries neighboring Afghanistan. According to Russian TASS news agency, Russia conducted large-scale military exercises near the Afghan border with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, former Soviet states, from the 5th to the 10th. Additionally, from the 9th to the 13th, Russia held large joint military exercises with the Chinese army in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in western China.

These exercises are known to be preparations with Afghanistan's neighboring countries to counter the Taliban's expansion and uprisings by Islamic fundamentalist armed groups. According to the BBC, Russia is particularly concerned about the possibility of Islamic insurgents in the Chechen Republic within the Russian Federation, who staged uprisings in 1991 and 2000, becoming active again.

◇ EU on Alert for Refugee Crisis Recurrence

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Within the European Union (EU), there are concerns that the refugees generated by the Taliban's occupation of Afghanistan will head en masse to Europe. Already, hundreds of thousands have fled in Afghanistan, and it is forecasted that the number of refugees will increase to millions following the fall of Kabul. If the refugee crisis recurs, the EU's cohesion could be tested once again.

U.S. political media Politico reported, citing a senior EU official, "It does not seem that an immediate immigration crisis will occur within the EU, but there are concerns that a large-scale refugee influx toward Europe will happen within the next few months."

Within the EU, debates over accepting Afghan refugees are intensifying. Six member states?Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, and Greece?requested the EU Commission on the 10th not to deport Afghan refugees whose asylum applications were rejected.

These countries fear a recurrence of the so-called "refugee crisis" when about one million Middle Eastern refugees flooded Europe in 2015-2016. The EU reports that over 400,000 refugees have emerged from Afghanistan this year alone, and many of them are likely to pass through Middle Eastern countries en route to Europe.

Major EU countries have begun preparing countermeasures. German Chancellor Angela Merkel plans to hold a ministerial meeting on the 18th to discuss Afghan refugees. Chancellor Merkel said, "We plan to support neighboring countries including Pakistan," adding, "We are also consulting with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)." Merkel has agreed to closely coordinate with President Emmanuel Macron regarding the Afghan situation.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.