Yoon Seok-yeol 26.3%, Lee Jae-myung 25.9% Neck and Neck Within Margin of Error [Realmeter]

Yoon Leads Both Lee Candidates in Binary Matchup

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] In the preference survey for the next presidential candidate, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol and Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung are engaged in a close race within the margin of error. Notably, in hypothetical one-on-one matchups, former Prosecutor General Yoon showed a declining approval rating but still held an advantage over all Democratic Party presidential candidates.

On the 12th, Realmeter, commissioned by 'OhmyNews', released the results of the second week of August 2021 preference survey for 16 major politicians from both ruling and opposition parties. Former Prosecutor General Yoon was recorded at 26.3%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous survey in the fourth week of July. During the same period, Governor Lee, ranked second, rose by 0.4 percentage points to 25.9%, narrowing the gap between the two candidates from 2.0 percentage points to 0.4 percentage points, indicating a close race within the margin of error.

Former Prosecutor General Yoon's approval ratings declined in the Chungcheong region, Busan·Ulsan·Gyeongnam (PK), among people in their 60s, 20s, and 40s, as well as among the politically unaffiliated, Justice Party supporters, People Power Party supporters, centrists, homemakers, students, and self-employed individuals. However, his ratings increased in Daegu·Gyeongbuk (TK), Honam, and among people in their 30s.

Governor Lee's ratings rose in Honam, Incheon·Gyeonggi, among people in their 20s and 50s, supporters of the Open Democratic Party and the Democratic Party, and centrists, while declining in TK and PK regions, among people in their 30s, supporters of the People’s Party and Justice Party, and the politically unaffiliated.

Former party leader Lee Nak-yeon dropped 3.1 percentage points from the previous survey to 12.9%, falling to the low teens.

Former Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung rose 0.6 percentage points to 6.1%, maintaining his upward trend and holding fourth place.

Following were Representative Hong Joon-pyo (5.4%), former Minister of Justice Chu Mi-ae (2.9%), former Representative Yoo Seung-min (2.4%), People’s Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo (2.3%), former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (2.1%), Representative Yoon Hee-sook (2.0%), Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong (1.4%), former Future United Party leader Hwang Kyo-ahn (1.3%), Representative Shim Sang-jung (1.1%), Representative Park Yong-jin (1.1%), Representative Kim Doo-kwan (0.7%), and Representative Ha Tae-kyung (0.7%). 'Other figures' accounted for 0.5%, 'None' 3.6%, and 'Don't know' 1.5%.

The combined preference for conservative/opposition candidates (Yoon Seok-yeol, Choi Jae-hyung, Hong Joon-pyo, Yoo Seung-min, Ahn Cheol-soo, Yoon Hee-sook, Won Hee-ryong, Hwang Kyo-ahn, Ha Tae-kyung) rose 1.8 percentage points to 47.8%, while the combined preference for progressive/ruling party candidates (Lee Jae-myung, Lee Nak-yeon, Chu Mi-ae, Chung Sye-kyun, Shim Sang-jung, Park Yong-jin, Kim Doo-kwan) fell 3.3 percentage points to 46.7%, narrowing the gap between the two camps to 1.1 percentage points.

In hypothetical one-on-one matchups, former Prosecutor General Yoon showed an advantage over both Governor Lee and former party leader Lee Nak-yeon.

In the hypothetical matchup between Yoon and Lee, Yoon led with 42.1% compared to Lee's 35.9%, a gap of 6.2 percentage points. Against former leader Lee Nak-yeon, Yoon garnered 43.7%, leading by 10.7 percentage points over Lee Nak-yeon's 33.0%.

Among Democratic Party presidential candidates, Governor Lee was considered the most suitable figure, rising 0.3 percentage points from the previous week to 33.1%. Former leader Lee Nak-yeon fell 1.2 percentage points to 21.9%, with an 11.3 percentage point gap between the two.

More than half (52.6%) of Democratic Party supporters considered Governor Lee suitable as a presidential candidate. Former leader Lee Nak-yeon received 33.5%, former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun 4.1%, former Minister Chu Mi-ae 4.0%, Representative Park Yong-jin 1.3%, and Representative Kim Doo-kwan 0.7%. Among the politically unaffiliated, Governor Lee had 36.3%, and former leader Lee Nak-yeon 11.6%.

Among conservative opposition presidential candidates, former Prosecutor General Yoon was considered the most suitable, though he dropped 1.8 percentage points from the previous week to 27.2%. Representative Hong Joon-pyo rose 2.1 percentage points to 15.4%, with an 11.8 percentage point gap between the two.

Among People Power Party supporters, former Prosecutor General Yoon sharply declined by 5.5 percentage points to 50.7%. Following him were former Chairman Choi Jae-hyung at 13.8%, Representative Hong Joon-pyo at 11.8%, former Representative Yoo Seung-min at 6.6%, leader Ahn Cheol-soo at 3.7%, Governor Won Hee-ryong at 3.1%, Representative Yoon Hee-sook at 2.6%, former Deputy Prime Minister Kim Dong-yeon at 1.2%, former leader Hwang Kyo-ahn at 1.0%, Representative Ha Tae-kyung at 0.9%, Representative Kim Tae-ho at 0.5%, Representative Park Jin at 0.4%, and Representative Ahn Sang-soo at 0.2%. Among the politically unaffiliated, former Prosecutor General Yoon had 19.3%, Representative Hong Joon-pyo 11.2%, and former Representative Yoo Seung-min 11.5%.

This survey was conducted from the 26th to 27th of last month, contacting 36,652 people nationwide aged 18 and older, with a final 2,058 respondents (response rate 5.6%). It was conducted via random digit dialing (RDD) automatic response method using a sampling frame of 90% mobile and 10% landline numbers. The sampling error is ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to Realmeter or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission websites.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.