Current Social Distancing Measures 'Insufficient' to Defend Against Delta... "Cases Could Reach 4,000"

3 out of 4 Confirmed Cases Are 'Delta Infections'
Concerns Over Medical Collapse Amid Surge in Patients
Experts Say "Consider Gathering Bans, etc."
Calls to Raise Herd Immunity Vaccination Rate to 90%

On the 11th, the number of new COVID-19 cases reached an all-time high of 2,223, but experts unanimously say, "This is not the peak yet." As the Delta variant leads the overall spread, the pattern of the outbreak has changed, and most analyses agree that the current social distancing measures are unlikely to be effective in controlling the spread. There are even observations that in the worst-case scenario, daily cases could exceed 4,000. Experts argue that before the healthcare system collapses, it is necessary to raise the level of quarantine measures, including banning gatherings in multi-use facilities and even implementing a lockdown.

◆"Daily cases could reach 4,000 to 6,000"= On this day, the number of confirmed cases exceeded 2,000 for the first time, realizing the worst-case scenario of "around 2,300 cases in mid-August" warned by Jeong Eun-kyung, the head of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, a month ago. However, experts evaluated this as an "expected outcome." Based on cases from other countries where the more transmissible Delta variant has become dominant, it is analyzed that the number of confirmed cases in South Korea could also increase further. Last week (August 1?7), the detection rate of major variants among domestic COVID-19 infections was 75.6%. Among a total of 3,175 analyzed cases, 2,321 cases (73.1%) were infections with the Delta variant.

Professor Eom Jung-sik, an infectious disease specialist at Gachon University Gil Medical Center, said, "The current record of 2,200 cases is not the peak of the fourth wave, and it is difficult to predict the peak at this time," adding, "There is no law that says we cannot become like the UK, where daily new cases exceed 20,000." Professor Kim Woo-joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University Guro Hospital, also said, "Despite 500 to 600 cases continuing for six months, the government did not strengthen social distancing due to economic reasons," and predicted, "Although level 4 social distancing has been in place for over a month, its effect has been minimal, so the number of confirmed cases will increase further."

As the scale of patient occurrence grows uncontrollably, concerns are rising that the healthcare system could collapse. As of 5 p.m. the previous day, the nationwide infectious disease-dedicated hospital bed occupancy rate was 73.6%, and the occupancy rate for beds dedicated to severe patients was 62.8%. Professor Eom said, "There is not much capacity left in the medical field to endure," and added, "The number of doctors capable of treating critically ill patients is limited, and nurses in intensive care units are caring for patients with about half the staffing levels of advanced countries."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆Current social distancing measures are insufficient= Currently, the metropolitan area has been under level 4, the highest stage of the current social distancing system, for five weeks. Non-metropolitan areas have also been under level 3, one step below, for three weeks. However, instead of controlling the outbreak, it is spreading rapidly. The quarantine authorities have also predicted that this fourth wave will last longer than previous waves.

Professor Kim Shin-woo, an infectious disease specialist at Kyungpook National University Hospital, said, "Social distancing is not ineffective, but due to the characteristics of the Delta variant, transmission is now closer to airborne rather than droplet," diagnosing, "Infection can occur within just a few minutes if masks are worn loosely or removed." He added, "The most important means to block the outbreak is vaccination, followed by social distancing measures, but now social distancing alone is insufficient."

Experts consistently agree that the consideration of stronger quarantine measures cannot be delayed any longer. Professor Kim Woo-joo advised, "Since cluster outbreaks continue mainly in multi-use facilities, gatherings should be banned briefly but decisively, with sufficient compensation." Professor Eom said, "The current social distancing system was designed considering the transmissibility of the virus before the spread of the Delta variant, and with vaccination rates not sufficiently high, the addition of the Delta variant makes suppression difficult," explaining, "If the situation worsens, a lockdown should be decided, or if that is difficult, the only option is to focus on vaccination while accepting a certain level of deaths amid ongoing spread."

As the nationwide first-dose COVID-19 vaccination rate surpassed 40 percent, citizens who completed their vaccinations are waiting to monitor any adverse reactions at the vaccination center set up at Bukahyeon Culture and Sports Center in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, on the 9th. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

◆‘70% population’ herd immunity?… "Vaccination rate must be higher"= With the emergence of the new variable, the Delta variant, and the outbreak reaching an unprecedented scale, there are also claims that the herd immunity target must be revised. Currently, authorities believe herd immunity can be achieved when 70% of the total population, or 36 million people, complete vaccination. However, there are arguments that the vaccination target rate should be raised up to 90% for herd immunity.

Professor Kim Shin-woo said, "The reason for the reduced mortality rate in South Korea is not that the virus has weakened, but because the elderly have been vaccinated. COVID-19 is expected not to weaken even with mutations," and insisted, "For social distancing to be effective together, the vaccination rate now needs to be 90%." Professor Eom also said, "Considering the transmissibility and clinical features of the Delta variant, the existing vaccination target should be reset and raised to 85?90%," adding, "Since vaccine supply is unstable and achieving this within the year is difficult, how we endure the outbreak situation until then will be crucial."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.