Growing Fear of Power Crisis... "Government May Use Power Quality Degradation Card"

This Week's Daytime Highs Reach Up to 36°C with Heatwave Warning... Reserve Margin Stabilizes Below 4% (10% Threshold)
If No '탈(脫)Wonjeon' Policy, Summer Peak Reserve Margin Would Rise to 7.9~12.9%
Government and Others, Despite Lax Demand Forecasts, Launch Energy-Saving Campaign Targeting Companies and Citizens

[Sejong=Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Haeyoung] With a heatwave forecasted to reach a high of 36 degrees Celsius during the day this week, the government's power supply and demand management has reached its first critical point. Following an increase in industrial electricity usage due to economic recovery after COVID-19, combined with rising household heating and cooling demand, electricity demand has surged sharply, raising concerns that a 'blackout' similar to the one in September 2011 could recur. In the worst-case scenario, there are even speculations that the government might deliberately degrade power quality to manage supply and demand. Criticism is mounting that the root of this power supply shortage lies in the Moon Jae-in administration's reckless nuclear phase-out policy, and that the power authorities have failed to ensure stable supply management, instead relying solely on demand reduction efforts such as launching 'electricity saving campaigns' targeting businesses and the public.

According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy on the 19th, Minister Moon Seung-wook will visit the Seoul headquarters of Korea Midland Power on the 20th to conduct an on-site inspection in preparation for summer power supply and demand. Deputy Minister Park Jin-gyu will also visit the Jeonnam Naju Power Exchange on the same day to check the current power supply status.

The reason the Minister and Deputy Minister of Industry are conducting consecutive on-site inspections from early this week is that they judged the heatwave and tropical nights this week to be severe. When the North Pacific High and Tibetan High, both carrying hot air, meet and prevent surface heat from dissipating, causing a 'heat dome phenomenon,' the intense summer heatwave of 2018?the worst in 111 years?could be repeated.

Particularly, there is considerable concern regarding the reserve margin, which refers to the surplus power supply. This week, it is highly likely to drop to the lowest level ever recorded. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy stated that when the temperature is 29.4 degrees Celsius, the reserve margin is 8.8%, and when the temperature is 30.2 degrees Celsius, it drops to 4.2%. According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, the daytime high temperature is forecasted to exceed 30 degrees in most regions, including 33 degrees in Seoul, so the reserve margin is expected to fall far below the stable threshold of 10%. The projected reserve margin during this summer's power peak period (fourth week of July to second week of August) is 4.2?9.1%, about half of last year's 10.3?14.8%. It is also lower compared to 11.7% in 2017, 14.1% in 2018, and 7.7?9.9% in 2019.

The reserve margin began to threaten stability as early as the 13th, dropping to 10.1%. On that day, the reserve capacity was only 8.8GW, leaving a margin of just 3.3GW before reaching the emergency power supply stage (below 5.5GW).

The energy industry points out that the government's reckless nuclear phase-out policy has caused power supply instability. If Shin-Hanul Units 1 and 2 (each with a generation capacity of 1.4GW) had started commercial operation as originally scheduled in April 2018 and February 2019 respectively, and if Wolsong Unit 1 (generation capacity 0.6GW) had not been prematurely shut down, the reserve capacity would have increased by 3.4GW. If these three nuclear power plants were operational, the reserve margin during this summer's power peak period could have risen from the current 4?8.3% to 7.9?12.9%.

The government is relying solely on reducing power demand. On the 13th, Minister Moon urged companies participating in the 'Demand Response (DR) system,' which rewards compensation when agreed reduction targets are met upon government requests to reduce power demand, to actively cooperate in managing electricity demand. Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), together with KEB Hana Bank, is promoting a nationwide electricity saving campaign and plans to launch products offering preferential interest rates and other benefits for saving electricity.

A power industry official said, "The current administration's nuclear phase-out policy and lax power demand forecasting have increased the possibility of a power crisis," adding, "To prevent a blackout like in 2011, the government might resort to measures that degrade power quality in the worst case."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.