[Click eStock] "Lineage Hit by Odin... NC's 2Q Operating Profit Down 37% YoY"
Blade and Soul 2 Release Delays Continue
[Asia Economy Reporter Minwoo Lee] NCSoft is expected to post somewhat below-expectation results for the second quarter of this year. This is due to the flagship titles 'Lineage M' and 'Lineage 2M' falling in revenue rankings and experiencing user attrition after being overshadowed by Kakao Games' 'Odin', as well as repeated delays in the release of the highly anticipated 'Blade & Soul 2'.
On the 16th, NH Investment & Securities lowered NCSoft's target stock price by 16%, from 1.25 million KRW to 1.05 million KRW, citing these factors. The closing price the previous day was 804,000 KRW. However, the investment rating was maintained at 'Buy'.
NH Investment & Securities projected NCSoft's second-quarter revenue at 539.8 billion KRW and operating profit at 132 billion KRW. Compared to the same period last year, revenue is expected to increase by 0.2% and operating profit by 36.8%. These figures are significantly below the market consensus of 189.2 billion KRW.
The main Lineage series is showing significant weakness. With the success of Kakao Games' new title 'Odin', the revenue rankings of Lineage M and Lineage 2M have dropped to second and third place, respectively. User attrition has also emerged, raising concerns about declining revenue. Jaemin Ahn, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, explained, "Despite the 4th anniversary update of Lineage M (July 7) and the Chronicle 5 update of Lineage 2M (June 29), the revenue growth of Odin has not been curbed, which is concerning. However, revenue before and after the updates is showing an upward trend again, so the performance is expected to decline only slightly."
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Blade & Soul 2 has experienced multiple release delays, causing continued postponement in reflecting related estimated revenue. Researcher Ahn stated, "However, TV advertisements were aired during the second quarter, and since the release was originally scheduled for the first half of the year, it is unlikely to be delayed by more than one additional quarter. NCSoft assumes a release at the end of September, and once the release schedule is announced, it will act as a positive momentum for the stock price."
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