[AKYUNG Poll] Hong Joon-pyo and Chu Mi-ae Surge... Yoon Seok-yeol and Lee Jae-myung in a Close Race Within Margin of Error

Yoon Seok-yeol's Self-Proclaimed Sniper
Hong Joon-pyo and Chu Mi-ae Rising

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] Hong Jun-pyo, a member of the People Power Party who emerged as a "Yoon Seok-yeol sniper," and former Minister of Justice Chu Mi-ae’s presidential approval ratings are rapidly rising. As former Prosecutor General Yoon’s presidential bid approaches, candidates strongly expressing an ‘anti-Yoon Seok-yeol’ stance are making gains.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 26th to 27th, surveying 1,009 voters nationwide aged 18 and older (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response), the support ratings for the next presidential candidates were as follows: former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol at 30.7%, Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung at 26.6%, and former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon at 9.5%. Compared to the poll conducted on the 12th-13th, these figures represent decreases of 2.6, 1.7, and 0.5 percentage points respectively. The gap between former Prosecutor General Yoon and Governor Lee’s support ratings is 4.1 percentage points, indicating a close race within the margin of error.

The decline in support among the top three candidates was offset by a steady increase in support for candidates ranked fourth and below. Hong Jun-pyo of the People Power Party ranked fourth with 5.7%, followed by former Minister of Justice Chu Mi-ae at 5.1%. Other candidates included former People Power Party lawmaker Yoo Seung-min (4.1%), Board of Audit and Inspection Chairman Choi Jae-hyung (3.3%), People’s Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo (2.7%), former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (2.2%), Democratic Party lawmaker Lee Kwang-jae (1.2%), former People Power Party floor leader Na Kyung-won (1.0%), and Democratic Party lawmaker Park Yong-jin (0.9%). Others accounted for 1.3%, while “none” and “don’t know” were 3.9% and 1.6%, respectively.

Hong, who returned to his original party, the People Power Party, on the 24th through rejoining, is the only current People Power Party presidential candidate to make it into the top 10. This is interpreted as a result of the ‘rejoining convention effect’ and his strong performance in the competition to clearly criticize Yoon Seok-yeol. In this survey, 10.2% of People Power Party supporters and 10.3% of supporters of other parties expressed support for Hong. On the 25th, Hong likened former Prosecutor General Yoon to a "new product in an online shopping mall," saying, "When a new product is delivered, don’t you check it yourself and return it if there are defects?" On the day of his rejoining, the 24th, he also launched an offensive, stating, "The fact that someone who was the symbol of law as Prosecutor General is already embroiled in about 20 allegations or scandals before even officially entering the race is itself a problem."

Former Minister Chu Mi-ae also contributed to her rising support by comparing herself to a "hawk catching a pheasant," confidently positioning herself as the ‘right person’ to confront former Prosecutor General Yoon. There is also a possibility that Chu will consolidate the strong pro-Moon Jae-in faction, which harbors strong antipathy toward Yoon, thereby increasing her political weight. During her tenure as Minister of Justice, Chu frequently clashed with Yoon over disciplinary issues and prosecutorial reform. On the 25th, she directly criticized Yoon, saying, "If the media, without proper verification, puts him on a pedestal and deceives the public by creating a hype, and he becomes president, I think he would be more dangerous than Park Geun-hye (former president)." According to this survey, 7.4% of Democratic Party supporters, 11.5% of Justice Party supporters, and 19.0% of other party supporters expressed support for Chu.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 26th to 27th, targeting voters aged 18 and older nationwide. A total of 1,009 people responded, with an overall response rate of 8.5%. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers, and the sample was extracted using weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.