US "Iran Nuclear Deal Talks to Resume This Weekend... To Conclude Before Iran Presidential Election"

Last Chance This Weekend... "Complicated Situation"
Hardline Conservative Candidate Favored in I-ran Presidential Election

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The U.S. government announced that it will definitely finalize the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA - Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) before the Iranian presidential election on the 18th and will resume negotiations over this weekend. With the possibility of hardline conservatives coming to power in the Iranian election, the prevailing analysis is that if the U.S. and Iran fail to find common ground in this weekend's negotiations, the Iran nuclear deal will effectively become difficult to achieve.

According to foreign media including the AP on the 9th (local time), Wendy Sherman, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, said at a virtual forum hosted by the German Marshall Fund, a U.S. think tank, "Negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal will resume this weekend," adding, "There has been much progress, but it is uncertain whether an agreement can be reached until the final details are decided."

The Iran nuclear deal has undergone about five rounds of talks so far, but all have failed to reach a final agreement. Deputy Secretary Sherman stated, "It is a situation where it must be finalized before the Iranian presidential election on June 18," and "As time grows tight, the situation has become very complicated." This is interpreted as a remark implying that the Biden administration is facing time pressure as well as criticism within the U.S., mainly from the Republican Party, for a rushed agreement.

The prevailing analysis is that if hardline conservatives come to power, the nuclear deal will effectively become impossible. Ebrahim Raisi, head of Iran's judiciary and a leading candidate for the next Iranian president, said in an interview with state-run Press TV on the same day, "Measures to lift U.S. sanctions are necessary, but they must be strengthened in a way that is not shaken by shocks such as sanctions or COVID-19," and "We must gather all our strength to confront forces that seek to undermine this." This statement, which prepares for the failure of the nuclear deal, suggests that if the deal is not finalized before the Iranian election, the likelihood of its success will be very low.

Meanwhile, the Iranian government has emphasized its existing position that the election and negotiations are separate, and it is reported to have conveyed that it can release crude oil into the oil market immediately after the nuclear deal is reached to prevent soaring oil prices. On the same day, Shana News Agency, affiliated with Iran's Ministry of Energy, promoted the effect of increased production, stating, "The Ministry of Energy is prepared to supply 1 million barrels per day within one month and 3.4 million barrels annually after the Iran nuclear deal."

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