Will Lee Jun-seok Declare a 'V' in the People Power Party Leadership Final Election?

Passed cutoff as preliminary primary 1st place
Only newcomer forms favorable 1:4 matchup against established figures
Possibility of variables like consolidation of established candidates
In 2008, defeated Park Hee-tae in party sentiment and Chung Mong-joon in public sentiment
Strategic voting by party members is the biggest variable

On the 25th, the People Power Party's first party convention was held at Nurikkum Square in Mapo-gu, Seoul. Candidate Lee Jun-seok, running for party leader, is presenting his vision.

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] As the possibility of a 30-something becoming the leader of the main opposition party grows, the entire society beyond the political sphere is showing keen interest. This is because it not only signals a generational change in the chronically stagnant political world but also hints at a radical shift in the seniority-based established social order unique to Korean society. Can former Future United Party Supreme Council member Lee Jun-seok declare a victory 'v' beyond the People Power Party preliminary primary and in the main primary?

On the 28th, the People Power Party's election management committee announced that former Supreme Council member Lee, former lawmaker Na Kyung-won, lawmaker Joo Ho-young, lawmaker Hong Moon-pyo, and lawmaker Cho Kyung-tae passed the cut-off. Although the People Power Party did not disclose the public opinion poll rankings, Lee ranked first in the general public opinion poll, which accounted for 50%, and ranked second in the party member opinion poll behind former lawmaker Na.

Beyond Public Sentiment to Party Sentiment

The main primary consists of 70% party member votes and only 30% public opinion polls, so party sentiment has a significant influence. Securing party sentiment is crucial. In this regard, there is also a forecast that party sentiment will ultimately follow public sentiment. Political commentator Yoo Chang-sun said, "If party sentiment chooses former lawmaker Na or lawmaker Joo, it will inevitably be perceived as the People Power Party rejecting public sentiment and trying to return to the past, so the gap between party sentiment and public sentiment is expected to narrow."

The key is the strategic voting tendency of party members. Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said, "Party members may make a strategic judgment to follow public sentiment to win next year's presidential election," adding, "If the overall party member opinion shifts like a strong wind, Lee's victory is possible, but if such an opinion does not form, it will be difficult." There are also opinions that Lee must demonstrate political skills to capture party sentiment. Kim Bong-shin, senior deputy director of Realmeter, introduced, "In the 2008 Hannara Party convention, former lawmaker Chung Mong-joon, who led in the general public opinion poll, lost to former lawmaker Park Hee-tae." When party sentiment and public sentiment differ, the side that dominates party sentiment eventually wins the convention. Kim predicted, "To reflect public sentiment into party sentiment, we will watch whether Lee can demonstrate political skills in opposition reorganization or presidential election preparations, such as candidate unification or presidential primaries."

Future Scenarios

An interesting point is that despite the rookie surge of lawmakers Kim Woong and Kim Eun-hye in the early stages of this primary, they failed to pass the cut-off. This can be interpreted as a strong performance by lawmakers Hong and Cho, who have solid regional bases, but behind the failure of Kim Woong and Kim Eun-hye to pass the cut-off, it can be said that public opinion supporting newcomers in the battle between veterans and newcomers converged on Lee. There have been several suggestions of unification between Lee and lawmakers Kim Woong and Kim Eun-hye. However, as only Lee advanced to the main primary, the newcomer group effectively unified.

With Lee's overwhelming first place in both public opinion polls and preliminary primary results, the possibility of veteran candidates unifying is also anticipated. To block Lee's election, the possibility of veterans forming alliances is high. In fact, the tension among veterans is very high. If Lee becomes party leader, a typhoon of generational change could blow. For this reason, conflicts arise between both sides on various issues.

For example, regarding the main primary rules, the election management committee faced debates between groups representing veterans and newcomers over whether to maintain the reverse selection prevention clause in the general public opinion poll. If the clause excluding supporters of the Democratic Party and others from the poll is introduced, the proportion reflecting party sentiment could slightly increase, leading to disagreements. This issue was so controversial that it initially prompted calls for an emergency party members' meeting within the People Power Party. The sensitive reaction even to a minor rule indicates the intensifying confrontation between veterans and newcomers.

For now, the battle between veterans and newcomers can be seen as four veterans versus one newcomer. For Lee, this is the best possible matchup.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.