The 'Lee Jun-seok Storm' Shaking the Political Field... A Passing Breeze or a Long-Standing Wind in Politics?

The Lee Jun-seok Surge and the Future Path of Korean Politics

On the 25th, the People Power Party's first party convention was held at Nurikkum Square in Mapo-gu, Seoul. Candidate Lee Jun-seok, running for party leader, is presenting his vision.

[Asia Economy reporters Naju-seok and Park Joon-yi] There is much analysis that the ‘Lee Jun-seok phenomenon’ reflects a demand for generational change within conservative parties. However, some argue that this is merely a superficial phenomenon, and that the essence lies in the ‘stagnation of Korean politics.’ Political commentator Yoo Chang-sun diagnosed in a phone interview on the 27th that "regardless of party, old-generation politicians are not stepping down and are holding on, causing politics to be ‘stagnant.’" He added, "If a 30-something opposition party leader emerges, the ruling party will also find it difficult to resist this trend." Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon also said, "The Lee Jun-seok phenomenon has more than just his ‘popular recognition’; there is an additional plus alpha (+α)."

Former Supreme Council member Lee Jun-seok ranking first as a candidate for party leader in various opinion polls purely reflects public sentiment. However, the People Power Party’s party leader election is decided by ‘party sentiment.’ The depth of the gap between party sentiment and public sentiment will be clearly confirmed when the election results are announced on the 11th of next month.

So, what would happen if former Supreme Council member Lee, who is leading in opinion polls, is actually elected party leader? Experts analyze that beyond a simple generational change theory, it could overturn the future presidential election landscape and the power dynamics within the party. Lee proposed as his party leader election pledges a basic qualification exam for public office candidates, competitive appointments for party positions, and 2-on-2 presidential debates where candidates form teams by topic to debate opposing teams. These are all paths that established parties have never taken before. Political commentator Yoo Jae-il said, "Until now, even though it was felt that local councilors were ‘ignorant,’ nominations were inevitably made like a kind of ‘cartel,’" adding, "But now, there is a declared intention not to nominate substandard candidates."

The first People Power Party leadership election was held on the 25th at Nurikkum Square in Mapo-gu, Seoul. Candidates running for party leader, Lee Jun-seok (second from the left), Cho Kyung-tae, Kim Woong, Yoon Young-seok, Joo Ho-young, Hong Moon-pyo, Kim Eun-hye, and Na Kyung-won, along with Acting Leader Kim Ki-hyun (left) and Election Commissioner Hwang Woo-yeo (right), are shouting "Fighting." Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

Before the medium- to long-term change of ‘party power dynamics,’ it is expected that in the short term, it will also have some influence on next year’s presidential election. The election of former Supreme Council member Lee itself could send a significant message to the presidential election. Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University called it "an opportunity to escape the image of a ‘conservative old-guard party,’" and commentator Lee Jong-hoon said, "As the People Power Party’s approval rating rises, presidential candidates will benefit from the ‘Lee Jun-seok effect.’"

Of course, there are concerns about the limitations of a new politician with no experience of being elected as a member of the National Assembly. Park Sang-chul, dean of the Graduate School of Political Studies at Kyonggi University, said, "I don’t know if he can manage the entire opposition." He added, "It is a fresh phenomenon, but it does not look very promising."

There are also voices interpreting this as merely one public opinion expressed within the specific context of the People Power Party. Jang Kyung-tae, a young lawmaker from the Democratic Party of Korea, said on the 27th, "Conservative supporters are projecting their will onto Lee Jun-seok that it cannot be Na Kyung-won or Joo Ho-young, who bear the original sin of the Park Geun-hye administration’s rise and impeachment." However, he also said, "It could be a stern warning to clear out the unsatisfactory political activities shown by existing conservative politicians and start anew," but added, "However, because of the completely opposite views on issues such as inter-Korean integration, labor, small business owners, gender equality, and youth politics despite being of the same generation, it cannot be entirely welcomed."

Meanwhile, the People Power Party’s Election Commission is scheduled to announce the results of the party leader preliminary election (cutoff) opinion poll and the five candidates advancing to the final election at 4 p.m. today at the National Assembly Communication Hall. The opinion poll, originally scheduled to run until 5 p.m., is expected to be completed in the morning. Election Commission Chair Hwang Woo-yeo told Asia Economy in a phone interview, "We have almost filled the opinion poll sample," explaining, "The party member voting closed quickly the day before, and the remaining general opinion poll voting is scheduled to be conducted until this morning."

However, the Election Commission is still struggling over whether to add a ‘reverse selection prevention’ question to exclude voters supporting other parties when conducting the final election opinion poll. Senior Election Commission members, including Chair Hwang, are in favor of reflecting this in the final election opinion poll to prevent distortion of party sentiment, while new members such as Kim Jae-seop and Cheon Ha-ram argue against including it to reflect public sentiment as much as possible. Considering the differences in members’ positions, the Election Commission plans to discuss the matter at today’s meeting.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.