Actual COVID-19 Infections in India May Exceed 500 Million... 30 Times Government Announcement

CNN Report Identifies Prosecutor Shortage and Inaccurate Aggregation as Causes of 'Infection Number Discrepancy'

Open-air crematorium in New Delhi where COVID-19 patients' bodies are cremated
[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Suhwan] There is a projection that the actual cumulative number of COVID-19 infections in India, which is experiencing the worst situation since the COVID-19 pandemic, could reach 500 million, exceeding one-third of the population.

On the 27th (local time), CNN reported, "The cumulative number of COVID-19 infections announced by the Indian government is currently about 17.6 million, but the actual number of infections could be 30 times higher, reaching over 500 million."

The media added, "Although testing speed significantly improved during the first wave of COVID-19, official statistics may still fall far short of the actual situation."

Earlier, Indian medical staff warned that due to poor infrastructure and lack of testing, the statistics on confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in India might have a huge gap compared to the actual numbers. Reasons for this discrepancy include asymptomatic patients possibly not getting tested at all, differences in counting methods across cities and states, sloppy data collection, and testing equipment not reaching remote rural areas.

Additionally, many patients cannot be admitted to hospitals due to a shortage of beds and die at home or other locations, making it difficult to accurately determine the cause of death.

Ramanan Lakshminarayan, director of the New Delhi Center for Disease Epidemiology and Economic Policy, said, "It is widely known that both confirmed cases and death counts are underreported," adding, "Last year, it was estimated that only about 1 in 30 infections was recorded through testing."

He continued, "Therefore, the reported number of infections is much lower than the actual number," and expressed concern, "This time, the death count also appears to be severely underreported. Far more people are dying than officially reported."

Dr. Soumya Swaminathan of the World Health Organization (WHO) said, "India conducts 2 million tests per day, but the positive rate is about 15%, and in cities like Delhi, it exceeds 30%, so testing is still insufficient," adding, "This means many infected people are not tested and thus not counted."

Dr. Swaminathan explained that based on serological tests, which check for antibodies against the coronavirus, India's actual number of infections could exceed 500 million.

Previous serological test results showed that the number of people with antibodies was at least 20 to 30 times higher than the reported number of infections. Applying this to the cumulative reported infections in India to date suggests the actual number of infections could reach approximately 529 million.

Professor Brahma Mukherjee of the University of Michigan diagnosed, "While all countries face some issues in classifying COVID-19 deaths, this problem is particularly severe in India."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.