The Fate of 'State Affairs + Presidential Power + Party Leadership' Hangs on One Election Battle

When the Democratic Party Suffers a Crushing Defeat, Lee Nak-yeon's Position Weakens
President Moon's Lame Duck Period Begins in Earnest
Possibility of Stalled Real Estate and Prosecutorial Reforms
If the Opposition Wins, Kim Jong-in's Leadership Strengthens
Pressure on Yoon Seok-youl to Join the Party Likely to Increase
Defeat Makes Party Reorganization Inevitable
Third-Party Strengthening and Continued Confusion Among Opposition Candidates

Two days before the April 7 by-election, on the 5th, election supervisors at each polling station in Seoul are conducting the final inspection and sealing of ballots in the large conference room of the Yeongdeungpo Election Commission in Seoul. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Reporters Koo Chae-eun and Lee Hyun-joo] The outcome of the April 7 by-elections is directly linked to the leadership of each party, political realignments, and, in the longer term, the trajectory of the presidential race. Especially, the side that loses in both Seoul and Busan will suffer a fatal blow and endure aftereffects for a considerable period.

Experts unanimously agree that if the opposition wins both the Seoul and Busan mayoral elections, the shockwave inflicted on the ruling party will be beyond imagination. Based on the current polling results, it is natural to first consider this scenario. The Democratic Party of Korea has achieved four consecutive victories starting from the 2016 general election, the 2017 presidential election, the 2018 local elections, and the 2020 general election. If they lose an election for the first time in five years, it will trigger significant resistance against reform legislation that the ruling party has prioritized, including real estate policies and prosecution reforms, possibly leading to the resignation of the current leadership. From the president’s perspective, a lame-duck situation would be difficult to avoid. Professor Park Sang-byeong of Inha University predicted, “After the by-election, the Blue House will carry out a cabinet reshuffle including replacing the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister for Economy, as well as national reforms, but if they lose the election, the momentum for governance based on these efforts will inevitably decline significantly.” Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon also noted, “In a situation where they lose the election, it will become difficult to find suitable candidates for the cabinet reshuffle.”

The Democratic Party will hold its party convention on May 9, immediately after the election. Regardless of the election results, the leadership talks about a ‘orderly recovery’ starting with the election of the party leader, but some voices are clearly pessimistic, mentioning a full-scale overhaul including the resignation of all supreme council members and even the launch of an emergency committee led by former party leader Lee Hae-chan. The party’s internal rules require the presidential candidate primary to be held by September 9, which is 180 days before the presidential election, and this could also be affected. Professor Park said, “The standing election campaign committee chairman Lee Nak-yeon’s position will be greatly weakened, and Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun is likely to rise rapidly, forming a two-strong structure with Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung in the presidential race.”

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In this situation, the initiative for political realignment in the opposition camp will gravitate toward the People Power Party. Political commentator Hwang Tae-soon diagnosed, “The movement toward the integration of the People Power Party and the People’s Party will intensify, and a period will come to draw a big picture on how to incorporate former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl into a certain framework.” After May, during the expected leadership change, demands for reappointing Kim Jong-in as emergency committee chairman will increase, and the consolidation of the opposition camp will gain strong momentum. Hwang said, “The opposition will rapidly move to consolidate its support base centered on Chairman Kim and former Prosecutor General Yoon.” Professor Park predicted, “With Ahn Cheol-soo, who had created tension in the third zone, moving toward merger, the centrist zone will effectively disappear.”

On the other hand, if the polling results are reversed and the ruling party wins at least one of Seoul or Busan, or both, the opposition’s political realignment will enter an unpredictable phase. After five consecutive defeats following the 2016 general election, the opposition camp could face demands for reform equivalent to ‘re-founding’ beyond innovation and overhaul. Hwang predicted, “After the disgraceful resignation of Chairman Kim, a major crisis and reform demand will hit the entire opposition camp,” adding, “Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo or independent lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo may step up to play a role.” Former Prosecutor General Yoon’s challenge for the presidency through a platform other than the People Power Party could coincide with this, leading to a chaotic realignment among opposition presidential hopefuls. On the ruling party side, the leadership of standing election campaign chairman Lee Nak-yeon is expected to solidify, potentially forming a two-strong presidential race between Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung, along with strengthened unity within the pro-Moon (pro Moon Jae-in) camp and a rebound in presidential approval ratings.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.