[Agyeong Poll] Undecided Voters Decrease but Remain High Among 2030s... Voter Turnout Expected to Rise

[Asia Economy Reporters Park Cheol-eung and Park Joon-yi] The voting intention of voters in Seoul and Busan has reached around 97%, and the proportion of undecided voters or those without a preferred candidate has significantly decreased to about 5-6%. A higher voter turnout is expected compared to past local or by-elections, and as the early voting on the 2nd and 3rd and the main election on the 7th approach, voter preferences appear to be solidifying.

In a poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting targeting 1,020 Seoul voters on the 30th and 31st of last month, 97.4% responded that they would vote. In Busan, the same survey of 1,012 respondents recorded 96.5%.

Even considering the gap between expressed voting intention and actual turnout in polls, a high level of interest is evident. This election is taking place amid growing anger over issues such as speculative scandals involving some employees of the Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH) during the COVID-19 pandemic, which seems to be a contributing factor.

Since 2000, voter turnout in six metropolitan mayoral elections ranged from 30% to 40%, but this time it is expected to exceed 50%. The 2011 by-election held after People Power Party’s Seoul mayor candidate Oh Se-hoon resigned recorded a turnout of 48.6%.

Conducted about a week before election day, the survey shows a noticeable decrease in undecided voters. In Seoul, the combined responses of 'none' and 'don’t know' for preferred candidate stood at 5.2%. In the same survey conducted on the 6th and 7th of last month, it was 10.0%, halving in just over 20 days.

In Busan, the survey from the 20th to 21st of last month showed 'none' and 'don’t know' responses at 16.7%, but in this survey, it sharply dropped to 5.9%.

However, by generation, the proportion of undecided voters is higher among those in their 20s and 30s, which is expected to act as a variable in the election results. Looking only at Seoul, the 'none/don’t know' response rate was notably high at 11.2% among 18-29 year-olds, followed by 7.1% in their 30s, 2.9% in their 40s, 3.2% in their 50s, and 4.4% in their 60s.

In Busan, the rates were 11.5% for 18-29 year-olds, 10.0% for those in their 30s, 7.4% for 40s, 3.8% for 50s, 2.3% for 60s, and 1.4% for those 70 and older. This indicates a relatively higher proportion of undecided voters compared to Seoul.

The poll commissioned by Asia Economy and conducted by Win-G Korea Consulting surveyed 1,012 men and women aged 18 and older residing in Busan Metropolitan City on the 30th and 31st of last month, using 100% mobile phone virtual number ARS method. The sample was based on the resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of January, with weighting applied by gender, age, and region (cell weighting). The response rate was 12.5%, and the sampling error was ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.